Racing Montevideo vs Cerro Largo preview
In the match between Racing Montevideo and Cerro Largo, the 1X2 probabilities show Racing Montevideo at 53%, while Cerro Largo sits at 15%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 20% chance according to our model. Racing Montevideo has a higher expected goals figure of 1.26 compared to Cerro Largo's 0.54, indicating a stronger attacking threat.
However, there are factors that could affect this outcome. Racing Montevideo's recent form includes 2 wins and 3 losses, while Cerro Largo has struggled with 4 losses and only 2 draws in their last 6 matches. The low probabilities for Over 2.5 goals at 27% and both teams to score at 31% suggest a tight match, which could lead to unexpected results.
Racing Montevideo vs Cerro Largo: model vs market
| Source | Racing Montevideo | Draw | Cerro Largo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 30% | 20% |
| Market | 53% | 27% | 20% |
| Published | 52% | 28% | 20% |
| Edge | -1% | +1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.36 vs 0.78.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.70, recorded — the top price across the 1 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Racing Montevideo vs Cerro Largo odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Racing Montevideo, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Montevideo | 1.70 | 1.70 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.40 | +0.00 |
| Cerro Largo | 4.50 | 4.50 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Racing Montevideo and Cerro Largo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.14
- Attack rating (Racing Montevideo / Cerro Largo)
- 1.06 / 0.73
- Defence rating (Racing Montevideo / Cerro Largo)
- 0.99 / 0.98
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Racing Montevideo vs Cerro Largo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Racing Montevideo goals. Columns: Cerro Largo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Racing Montevideo vs Cerro Largo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 41%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Racing Montevideo vs Cerro Largo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Racing Montevideo | 52% | 1.91 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.63 | |
| Cerro Largo | 20% | 4.97 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36% | 2.77 |
| Under 2.5 | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41% | 2.42 |
| No | 59% | 1.71 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Racing Montevideo or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Cerro Largo) | 48% | 2.10 | |
| Handicap -1 | Racing Montevideo win by 2+ | 25% | 4.07 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Racing Montevideo and Cerro Largo recent form
Racing Montevideo
1W 2D 3L
Cerro Largo
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Racing Montevideo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-5-2
- Win rate
- 59%
- Goals for / match
- 1.47
- Goals against / match
- 0.71
- Clean sheets
- 9 of 17
- They have won 15 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
Cerro Largo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-4-9
- Win rate
- 24%
- Goals for / match
- 0.71
- Goals against / match
- 1.29
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 17
- They have won 8 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 33 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Racing Montevideo at home only, Cerro Largo away only.
Racing Montevideo vs Cerro Largo head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Racing Montevideo 2 · draws 1 · Cerro Largo 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Racing Montevideo | 1-0 | Cerro Largo | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2026-04-26 | Cerro Largo | 0-1 | Racing Montevideo | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2025-04-28 | Racing Montevideo | 1-1 | Cerro Largo | Uruguay Primera División |
Other Clausura - 13 fixtures
- Cerro vs Central Espanol — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Penarol vs Wanderers 2026-10-31
- Progreso v Defensor Sporting — match page 2026-11-01
- Boston River vs Atletico Torque — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Danubio vs Club Nacional 2026-11-01
- Albion FC v Deportivo Maldonado — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Racing Montevideo, previous: Defensor Sporting – Racing Montevideo, 2026-10-24
- Cerro Largo, previous: Cerro Largo vs Boston River: odds and pick