Penarol vs Wanderers preview
In the match between Penarol and Wanderers, the 1X2 probabilities show Penarol at 65%, Wanderers at 12%, and a draw at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 13% chance according to our model. Penarol has an expected goals figure of 1.91, while Wanderers sits at 0.70.
However, the predictions could be challenged if Wanderers improves their recent form, which includes 2 wins in their last 6 matches. Additionally, with 48% for Over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, there is potential for surprises in the final outcome.
Penarol vs Wanderers: model vs market
| Source | Penarol | Draw | Wanderers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66% | 23% | 11% |
| Market | 63% | 23% | 14% |
| Published | 64% | 23% | 13% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 0.63.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.50, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Penarol vs Wanderers odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Penarol, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Penarol | 1.44 | 1.44 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.05 | 4.05 | +0.00 |
| Wanderers | 6.50 | 6.50 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Penarol and Wanderers expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.50
- Attack rating (Penarol / Wanderers)
- 1.13 / 0.91
- Defence rating (Penarol / Wanderers)
- 0.64 / 1.27
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Penarol vs Wanderers score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Penarol goals. Columns: Wanderers goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Penarol vs Wanderers goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 40%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Penarol vs Wanderers
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Penarol | 64% | 1.56 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.42 | |
| Wanderers | 13% | 7.58 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.19 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40% | 2.48 |
| No | 60% | 1.68 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Penarol or draw) | 87% | 1.15 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Wanderers) | 36% | 2.79 | |
| Handicap -1 | Penarol win by 2+ | 41% | 2.44 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Penarol and Wanderers recent form
Penarol
2W 3D 1L
Wanderers
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Penarol at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-4-4
- Win rate
- 56%
- Goals for / match
- 1.89
- Goals against / match
- 1.06
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 18
- They have won 20 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Wanderers away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-2-9
- Win rate
- 39%
- Goals for / match
- 1.22
- Goals against / match
- 1.78
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 18
- They have won 14 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Penarol at home only, Wanderers away only.
Penarol vs Wanderers head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Penarol 3 · draws 0 · Wanderers 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | Penarol | 5-1 | Wanderers | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2026-04-26 | Wanderers | 1-0 | Penarol | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2025-06-22 | Penarol | 2-0 | Wanderers | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2025-04-19 | Wanderers | 1-2 | Penarol | Uruguay Primera División |
Other Clausura - 13 fixtures
- Racing Montevideo v Cerro Largo — match page 2026-10-31
- Cerro vs Central Espanol — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Progreso v Defensor Sporting — match page 2026-11-01
- Boston River vs Atletico Torque — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Danubio vs Club Nacional 2026-11-01
- Albion FC v Deportivo Maldonado — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Penarol, previous: Juventud vs Penarol: odds and pick
- Wanderers, previous: Wanderers – Progreso, 2026-10-25