Liverpool Montevideo vs Juventud: model vs market
| Source | Liverpool Montevideo | Draw | Juventud |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 36% | 20% |
| Market | 47% | 27% | 26% |
| Published | 46% | 29% | 24% |
| Edge | -1% | +2% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.03 vs 0.60.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.05, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Liverpool Montevideo vs Juventud odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Liverpool Montevideo, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool Montevideo | 1.92 | 1.92 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.40 | +0.00 |
| Juventud | 3.49 | 3.49 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Liverpool Montevideo and Juventud expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.62
- Attack rating (Liverpool Montevideo / Juventud)
- 1.18 / 0.80
- Defence rating (Liverpool Montevideo / Juventud)
- 0.70 / 0.67
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Liverpool Montevideo vs Juventud score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Liverpool Montevideo goals. Columns: Juventud goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Liverpool Montevideo vs Juventud goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 30%
- No goals (0–0)
- 21%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Liverpool Montevideo vs Juventud
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Liverpool Montevideo | 46% | 2.15 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.44 | |
| Juventud | 24% | 4.08 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 22% | 4.49 |
| Under 2.5 | 78% | 1.29 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 30% | 3.32 |
| No | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Liverpool Montevideo or draw) | 76% | 1.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Juventud) | 54% | 1.87 | |
| Handicap -1 | Liverpool Montevideo win by 2+ | 18% | 5.55 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Liverpool Montevideo and Juventud recent form
Liverpool Montevideo
4W 2D 0L
Juventud
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Liverpool Montevideo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-5-4
- Win rate
- 44%
- Goals for / match
- 1.31
- Goals against / match
- 0.88
- Clean sheets
- 10 of 16
- They have won 14 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 15 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Juventud away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-7-6
- Win rate
- 24%
- Goals for / match
- 1.12
- Goals against / match
- 1.35
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 17
- They have won 10 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Liverpool Montevideo at home only, Juventud away only.
Liverpool Montevideo vs Juventud head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Liverpool Montevideo 0 · draws 1 · Juventud 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Juventud | 1-1 | Liverpool Montevideo | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2025-05-04 | Juventud | 1-0 | Liverpool Montevideo | Uruguay Primera División |
Other Clausura - 13 fixtures
- Racing Montevideo v Cerro Largo — match page 2026-10-31
- Cerro vs Central Espanol — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Penarol vs Wanderers 2026-10-31
- Progreso v Defensor Sporting — match page 2026-11-01
- Boston River vs Atletico Torque — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Danubio vs Club Nacional 2026-11-01
- Albion FC v Deportivo Maldonado — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Liverpool Montevideo, previous: Club Nacional vs Liverpool Montevideo prediction
- Juventud, previous: Juventud vs Penarol: odds and pick