Vancouver Whitecaps vs San Diego preview
In the match between Vancouver Whitecaps and San Diego, the 1X2 probabilities show Vancouver at 65%, while San Diego sits at 16%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance of occurring. Vancouver's expected goals are 2.64 compared to San Diego's 1.29, indicating a strong attacking performance from the home side.
However, the recent form of both teams could influence the outcome. Vancouver has a mixed record with W-D-D-L-D-W, while San Diego has struggled, recording D-D-L-D-D-L. This could affect the likelihood of both teams to score, currently at 68%, and the chance of Over 2.5 goals, which stands at 75%.
Vancouver Whitecaps vs San Diego: model vs market
| Source | Vancouver Whitecaps | Draw | San Diego |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65% | 18% | 16% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 65% | 18% | 16% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.64 vs 1.29.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Vancouver Whitecaps and San Diego expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.93
- Attack rating (Vancouver Whitecaps / San Diego)
- 1.07 / 1.13
- Defence rating (Vancouver Whitecaps / San Diego)
- 0.83 / 1.41
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Vancouver Whitecaps vs San Diego score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Vancouver Whitecaps goals. Columns: San Diego goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Vancouver Whitecaps vs San Diego goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Vancouver Whitecaps vs San Diego
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 65% | 1.53 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.43 | |
| San Diego | 16% | 6.20 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75% | 1.33 |
| Under 2.5 | 25% | 4.03 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.47 |
| No | 32% | 3.13 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Vancouver Whitecaps or draw) | 84% | 1.19 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.23 | |
| X2 (draw or San Diego) | 35% | 2.90 | |
| Handicap -1 | Vancouver Whitecaps win by 2+ | 45% | 2.20 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Vancouver Whitecaps and San Diego recent form
Vancouver Whitecaps
2W 3D 1L
San Diego
0W 4D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Vancouver Whitecaps at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-2-4
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.93
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 15
- They have won 16 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
San Diego away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-6-7
- Win rate
- 13%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.93
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 15
- They have won 8 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 9 of 10 penalties (90%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Vancouver Whitecaps at home only, San Diego away only.
Vancouver Whitecaps vs San Diego head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Vancouver Whitecaps 2 · draws 1 · San Diego 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | San Diego | 2-4 | Vancouver Whitecaps | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-11-30 | San Diego | 1-3 | Vancouver Whitecaps | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-07-20 | San Diego | 1-1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-06-26 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 3-5 | San Diego | Major League Soccer |
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Before and after this match
- Vancouver Whitecaps, previous: Colorado Rapids vs Vancouver Whitecaps prediction
- San Diego, previous: San Diego vs Seattle Sounders: odds and pick