St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers preview
In the match between St. Louis City and Portland Timbers, the 1X2 probabilities show St. Louis City at 72%, while Portland Timbers sit at 11%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance. St. Louis City has an expected goals figure of 2.74, compared to Portland Timbers' 1.05, indicating a strong offensive performance from the home side.
However, the confidence grade is C, suggesting some uncertainty. Both teams to score has a 62% probability, which could be impacted by Portland's recent form of 6 matches without a win. Additionally, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 73%, any defensive improvements from Portland could alter the expected outcome.
St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers: model vs market
| Source | St. Louis City | Draw | Portland Timbers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 72% | 17% | 11% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 72% | 17% | 11% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.74 vs 1.05.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
St. Louis City and Portland Timbers expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.79
- Attack rating (St. Louis City / Portland Timbers)
- 1.36 / 0.95
- Defence rating (St. Louis City / Portland Timbers)
- 0.80 / 1.15
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: St. Louis City goals. Columns: Portland Timbers goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | St. Louis City | 72% | 1.39 |
| Draw | 17% | 6.03 | |
| Portland Timbers | 11% | 8.80 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73% | 1.37 |
| Under 2.5 | 27% | 3.70 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.62 |
| No | 38% | 2.60 | |
| Double chance | 1X (St. Louis City or draw) | 89% | 1.13 |
| 12 (either side) | 83% | 1.20 | |
| X2 (draw or Portland Timbers) | 28% | 3.58 | |
| Handicap -1 | St. Louis City win by 2+ | 52% | 1.92 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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St. Louis City and Portland Timbers recent form
St. Louis City
3W 2D 1L
Portland Timbers
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
St. Louis City at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-4-2
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.27
- Goals against / match
- 1.27
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 15
- They have won 14 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Portland Timbers away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-10
- Win rate
- 13%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.07
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 15
- They have won 9 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: St. Louis City at home only, Portland Timbers away only.
St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers head-to-head
Last 8 meetings: St. Louis City 3 · draws 3 · Portland Timbers 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Portland Timbers | 2-2 | St. Louis City | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-07-13 | St. Louis City | 2-1 | Portland Timbers | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-06-08 | Portland Timbers | 2-1 | St. Louis City | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-08-25 | Portland Timbers | 4-4 | St. Louis City | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-08-10 | St. Louis City | 3-1 | Portland Timbers | Leagues Cup |
| 2024-06-09 | St. Louis City | 0-0 | Portland Timbers | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-04-30 | St. Louis City | 1-2 | Portland Timbers | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-03-12 | Portland Timbers | 1-2 | St. Louis City | Major League Soccer |
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Before and after this match
- St. Louis City, previous: Real Salt Lake vs St. Louis City: odds and pick
- Portland Timbers, previous: Portland Timbers v Charlotte analysis