Updated

Major League Soccer · Matchday 31

Real Salt Lake vs St. Louis City

· Rio Tinto Stadium, Sandy· Referee Drew Fischer

Full time3 – 0

Alin prediction was St. Louis City to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Real Salt LakeDrawSt. Louis City

Real Salt Lake vs St. Louis City: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceReal Salt LakeDrawSt. Louis City
Model23%24%53%
Market42%25%34%
Published37%25%38%
Edge-5%0%+5%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.95 vs 1.22.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices St. Louis City below our published probability: +4.9 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Real Salt Lake vs St. Louis City odds movement

Median bookmaker price on St. Louis City, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-18.

Opened 2.46Now 2.80 +0.33
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Real Salt Lake2.522.25-0.27
Draw3.653.80+0.15
St. Louis City2.462.80+0.33

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Real Salt Lake and St. Louis City expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.22Real Salt Lake
1.95St. Louis City
Total expected goals
3.16
Attack rating (Real Salt Lake / St. Louis City)
0.88 / 1.36
Defence rating (Real Salt Lake / St. Louis City)
1.03 / 0.80

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Real Salt Lake vs St. Louis City score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.2% 7.2% 8.0% 5.2% 4.0% 1 4.1% 11.0% 9.7% 6.3% 4.8% 2 3.1% 6.1% 5.9% 3.8% 2.9% 3 1.3% 2.5% 2.4% 1.6% 1.2% 4+ 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 0.6% 0.5%

Rows: Real Salt Lake goals. Columns: St. Louis City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Real Salt Lake vs St. Louis City goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 83%
Over 2.5 61%
Over 3.5 39%
Both teams to score
61%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Real Salt Lake vs St. Louis City

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Real Salt Lake37%2.70
Draw25%4.08
St. Louis City38%2.60
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561%1.63
Under 2.539%2.58
Both teams to scoreYes61%1.63
No39%2.59
Double chance1X (Real Salt Lake or draw)62%1.63
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or St. Louis City)63%1.59
Handicap -1St. Louis City win by 2+32%3.15
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Real Salt Lake and St. Louis City recent form

Real Salt Lake 2W 1D 3L
St. Louis City 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Real Salt Lake at home

Record (W-D-L)
8-3-4
Win rate
53%
Goals for / match
1.87
Goals against / match
1.40
Clean sheets
3 of 15
  • They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 30 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

St. Louis City away

Record (W-D-L)
5-5-5
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.47
Goals against / match
1.47
Clean sheets
2 of 15
  • They have won 14 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 30 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Real Salt Lake at home only, St. Louis City away only.

Injuries & availability

Real Salt Lake absences

  • D. Luna knee injury
  • E. Eneli knee injury
  • G. Dillon foot injury
  • J. J. Arias hamstring injury
  • L. Engel hamstring injury

St. Louis City absences

  • A. Matan injury
  • Celio Pompeu knee injury
  • K. Hiebert hip injury
  • R. Burki head injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Real Salt Lake lineup · 5-4-1

  1. 1 Rafael Cabral
  2. 8 J. Sanabria
  3. 3 K. Henry
  4. 26 P. Quinton
  5. 44 L. De Fougerolles
  6. 11 D. Marczuk
  7. 9 M. Guilavogui
  8. 92 N. Caliskan
  9. 6 S. Spierings
  10. 12 S. Lobzhanidze
  11. 22 S. Solans

Bench: D. Yedlin, J. Glad, A. Piol, Chadwick Zachary Booth, Colin Guske, S. Junqua, M. Stajduhar, A. Hezarkhani, A. Katránis

St. Louis City lineup · 3-4-3

  1. 39 B. Lundt
  2. 27 F. Fall
  3. 32 T. Baumgartl
  4. 99 J. Orozco
  5. 20 Rafael Santos
  6. 8 C. Durkin
  7. 18 C. Brunet
  8. 6 C. Wallem
  9. 11 S. Becher
  10. 9 Rafael Navarro
  11. 7 T. Ostrák

Bench: M. Fall, L. MacNaughton, C. Holse, D. Polvara, D. Edelman, C. Olivares, D. Downs, M. Joyner, Jeong Sang-Bin

Real Salt Lake vs St. Louis City head-to-head

Last 8 meetings: Real Salt Lake 3 · draws 4 · St. Louis City 1.

Real Salt LakeDrawsSt. Louis City
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-02St. Louis City1-1Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
2025-10-19St. Louis City2-2Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
2025-07-06Real Salt Lake3-2St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
2025-02-05St. Louis City1-1Real Salt LakeFriendlies Clubs
2024-03-31Real Salt Lake3-1St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
2024-02-25St. Louis City1-1Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
2023-06-22St. Louis City1-3Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
2023-03-26Real Salt Lake0-4St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer

Other Matchday 31 fixtures

Before and after this match