Updated

Major League Soccer · Matchday 31

New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami

· Sports Illustrated Stadium, Harrison· Referee Filip Dujic

Full time2 – 0

Alin prediction was Inter Miami to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
New York Red BullsDrawInter Miami

New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceNew York Red BullsDrawInter Miami
Model22%24%54%
Market28%22%50%
Published26%23%51%
Edge-1%0%+1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 1.16.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Inter Miami, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-18.

Opened 1.90Now 1.89 -0.01
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
New York Red Bulls3.203.40+0.20
Draw4.154.20+0.05
Inter Miami1.901.89-0.01

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

New York Red Bulls and Inter Miami expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.16New York Red Bulls
1.91Inter Miami
Total expected goals
3.07
Attack rating (New York Red Bulls / Inter Miami)
0.71 / 1.39
Defence rating (New York Red Bulls / Inter Miami)
0.99 / 0.94

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.7% 7.8% 8.5% 5.4% 4.0% 1 4.3% 11.3% 9.8% 6.3% 4.6% 2 3.1% 6.0% 5.7% 3.6% 2.7% 3 1.2% 2.3% 2.2% 1.4% 1.0% 4+ 0.4% 0.9% 0.8% 0.5% 0.4%

Rows: New York Red Bulls goals. Columns: Inter Miami goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 82%
Over 2.5 59%
Over 3.5 37%
Both teams to score
60%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2New York Red Bulls26%3.81
Draw23%4.37
Inter Miami51%1.97
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.559%1.69
Under 2.541%2.46
Both teams to scoreYes60%1.68
No40%2.47
Double chance1X (New York Red Bulls or draw)49%2.03
12 (either side)77%1.30
X2 (draw or Inter Miami)74%1.36
Handicap -1Inter Miami win by 2+32%3.14
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

New York Red Bulls and Inter Miami recent form

New York Red Bulls 3W 0D 3L
Inter Miami 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

New York Red Bulls at home

Record (W-D-L)
5-3-7
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.47
Goals against / match
1.93
Clean sheets
1 of 15
  • They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
  • 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Inter Miami away

Record (W-D-L)
9-3-3
Win rate
60%
Goals for / match
2.13
Goals against / match
1.67
Clean sheets
3 of 15
  • They have won 15 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
  • They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 2.1 on the road.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: New York Red Bulls at home only, Inter Miami away only.

Injuries & availability

New York Red Bulls absences

  • A. Marcucci knee injury

Inter Miami absences

  • F. Caicedo lower-body injury
  • M. Falcon yellow cards
  • M. Silvetti injury
  • T. Allende knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

New York Red Bulls lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 34 E. Horvath
  2. 59 D. Padelford
  3. 14 J. Bazán
  4. 26 T. Parker
  5. 12 D. Nealis
  6. 37 M. Sofo
  7. 15 A. Mehmeti
  8. 48 R. Donkor
  9. 11 J. Ruvalcaba
  10. 16 J. Hall
  11. 7 C. Cowell

Bench: J. Marshall-Rutty, D. Ruíz, E. Forsberg, E. Choupo-Moting, C. Harper, M. Dos Santos, S. Kone, J. McCarthy, R. Mosquera

Inter Miami lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 97 D. St. Clair
  2. 3 Reguilón
  3. 16 Micael
  4. 5 Casemiro
  5. 2 G. Luján
  6. 80 M. Galarza
  7. 22 D. Ayala
  8. 7 R. De Paul
  9. 19 G. Berterame
  10. 9 L. Suárez
  11. 11 Riquelme Fillipi

Bench: F. Mura, T. Segovia, L. Messi, I. Fray, S. Morales, R. Ríos Novo, Y. Bright, Daniel Pinter, A. Shaw

New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: New York Red Bulls 4 · draws 1 · Inter Miami 5.

New York Red BullsDrawsInter Miami
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-11Inter Miami2-2New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
2025-07-19New York Red Bulls1-5Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
2025-05-03Inter Miami4-1New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
2024-05-04Inter Miami6-2New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
2024-03-23New York Red Bulls4-0Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
2023-08-26New York Red Bulls0-2Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
2023-05-31Inter Miami0-1New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
2022-08-27New York Red Bulls3-1Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
2022-05-22Inter Miami2-0New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
2021-10-09New York Red Bulls1-0Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer

Other Matchday 31 fixtures

Before and after this match