Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC preview
In the fixture between Columbus Crew and Toronto FC, the 1X2 probabilities indicate Columbus Crew at 52% and Toronto FC at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs 9% of the time according to our model. Columbus Crew has an expected goals tally of 2.06, while Toronto FC sits at 1.42.
The likelihood of Over 2.5 goals is 68%, with both teams to score at 67%. However, the recent form shows Columbus Crew with a mixed record of W-L-W-W-W-L, and Toronto FC struggling with W-D-W-L-L-L. This inconsistency could affect the outcome, despite the statistical edge for Columbus Crew.
Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC: model vs market
| Source | Columbus Crew | Draw | Toronto FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 24% | 23% |
| Market | 60% | 21% | 19% |
| Published | 58% | 22% | 20% |
| Edge | -2% | +1% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.90 vs 1.18.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.62, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Columbus Crew, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-21.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus Crew | 1.62 | 1.56 | -0.06 |
| Draw | 4.36 | 4.47 | +0.12 |
| Toronto FC | 4.54 | 5.00 | +0.45 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Columbus Crew and Toronto FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.09
- Attack rating (Columbus Crew / Toronto FC)
- 0.99 / 1.06
- Defence rating (Columbus Crew / Toronto FC)
- 0.81 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Columbus Crew goals. Columns: Toronto FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Columbus Crew | 58% | 1.71 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.57 | |
| Toronto FC | 20% | 5.06 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.47 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.66 |
| No | 40% | 2.50 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Columbus Crew or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Toronto FC) | 42% | 2.40 | |
| Handicap -1 | Columbus Crew win by 2+ | 31% | 3.20 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Columbus Crew and Toronto FC recent form
Columbus Crew
4W 1D 1L
Toronto FC
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Columbus Crew at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-2-6
- Win rate
- 47%
- Goals for / match
- 1.47
- Goals against / match
- 1.13
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 15
- They have won 9 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Toronto FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-8
- Win rate
- 21%
- Goals for / match
- 0.86
- Goals against / match
- 1.64
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 14
- They have won 7 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 29 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Columbus Crew at home only, Toronto FC away only.
Injuries & availability
Columbus Crew absences
-
R. Camacho
chest injury
- T. Habroune injury
-
W. Abou Ali
knee injury
Toronto FC absences
- K. Franklin shoulder injury
-
N. Palacio
lower-body injury
-
W. Zimmerman
ankle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Columbus Crew 0 · draws 2 · Toronto FC 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Toronto FC | 2-1 | Columbus Crew | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-09-20 | Columbus Crew | 1-1 | Toronto FC | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-08-16 | Toronto FC | 1-1 | Columbus Crew | Major League Soccer |
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
- CF Montreal v Nashville SC — match page 2026-10-24
- New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami 2026-10-24
- Orlando City SC v New York City FC — match page 2026-10-24
- Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire 2026-10-24
- DC United v FC Cincinnati — match page 2026-10-24
- FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United FC 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Columbus Crew, previous: Columbus Crew – St. Louis City, 2026-10-22
- Columbus Crew, next: FC Dallas v Columbus Crew analysis
- Toronto FC, previous: New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC: odds and pick
- Toronto FC, next: Toronto FC – DC United, 2026-10-28