Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution preview
In the match between Philadelphia Union and New England Revolution, the 1X2 probabilities show Philadelphia Union at 69%, while New England Revolution is at 14%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 8% chance. The model also indicates a strong likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 78% and both teams to score at 69%.
Philadelphia Union has shown solid recent form with 5 wins and 1 draw, while New England Revolution has 4 wins and 2 losses in their last 6 matches. However, the confidence grade is C, suggesting that unexpected outcomes could arise. The head-to-head record favors Philadelphia Union with 2 wins compared to New England Revolution's 1 win in their last 3 meetings.
Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution: model vs market
| Source | Philadelphia Union | Draw | New England Revolution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 69% | 17% | 14% |
| Market | 62% | 20% | 18% |
| Published | 64% | 19% | 17% |
| Edge | +2% | -1% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.83 vs 1.29.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.56, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Philadelphia Union, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Union | 1.58 | 1.52 | -0.06 |
| Draw | 4.30 | 4.65 | +0.35 |
| New England Revolution | 4.62 | 5.28 | +0.65 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Philadelphia Union and New England Revolution expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.12
- Attack rating (Philadelphia Union / New England Revolution)
- 1.61 / 1.07
- Defence rating (Philadelphia Union / New England Revolution)
- 0.87 / 1.01
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Philadelphia Union goals. Columns: New England Revolution goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Philadelphia Union | 64% | 1.57 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.16 | |
| New England Revolution | 17% | 5.91 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78% | 1.28 |
| Under 2.5 | 22% | 4.53 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.45 |
| No | 31% | 3.21 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Philadelphia Union or draw) | 83% | 1.20 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or New England Revolution) | 36% | 2.75 | |
| Handicap -1 | Philadelphia Union win by 2+ | 49% | 2.03 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Philadelphia Union and New England Revolution recent form
Philadelphia Union
5W 1D 0L
New England Revolution
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Philadelphia Union at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-5-3
- Win rate
- 47%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.07
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 15
- They have won 13 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
New England Revolution away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-2-7
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.47
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 15
- They have won 15 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Philadelphia Union at home only, New England Revolution away only.
Injuries & availability
Philadelphia Union absences
- J. Bueno hamstring injury
New England Revolution absences
-
A. Yusuf
muscle injury
-
J. Harrison
lower-body injury
-
L. Campana
hamstring injury
- M. Fofana lower-body injury
- W. Sands injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Philadelphia Union 2 · draws 0 · New England Revolution 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | New England Revolution | 2-1 | Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-09-20 | Philadelphia Union | 1-0 | New England Revolution | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-03-09 | New England Revolution | 0-2 | Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer |
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
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- DC United v FC Cincinnati — match page 2026-10-24
- FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United FC 2026-10-25
- Sporting Kansas City vs Austin 2026-10-25
- Real Salt Lake v St. Louis City — match page 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Philadelphia Union, previous: Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte prediction
- Philadelphia Union, next: Nashville SC – Philadelphia Union, 2026-10-29
- New England Revolution, previous: New England Revolution – Chicago Fire, 2026-10-17
- New England Revolution, next: New England Revolution vs New York Red Bulls: odds and pick