FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes preview
In the match between FC Dallas and San Jose Earthquakes, the 1X2 probabilities show FC Dallas at 50%, while both teams have a 25% chance of winning. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.81 for FC Dallas and 1.22 for San Jose Earthquakes.
The model indicates a strong possibility for Over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams to score at 60%. However, the recent form shows FC Dallas with a mixed record of D-W-L-W-D-W, while San Jose Earthquakes have drawn three times in their last five matches. This could affect the outcome, especially if San Jose manages to tighten their defense.
FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes: model vs market
| Source | FC Dallas | Draw | San Jose Earthquakes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| Market | 54% | 22% | 23% |
| Published | 53% | 23% | 24% |
| Edge | -1% | +1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 1.22.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.83, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Dallas, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Dallas | 1.82 | 1.74 | -0.08 |
| Draw | 3.93 | 4.20 | +0.27 |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 3.70 | 4.07 | +0.37 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Dallas and San Jose Earthquakes expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.03
- Attack rating (FC Dallas / San Jose Earthquakes)
- 1.08 / 0.88
- Defence rating (FC Dallas / San Jose Earthquakes)
- 1.00 / 0.97
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Dallas goals. Columns: San Jose Earthquakes goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Dallas | 53% | 1.88 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.32 | |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 24% | 4.25 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.40 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.67 |
| No | 40% | 2.50 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Dallas or draw) | 76% | 1.31 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or San Jose Earthquakes) | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Dallas win by 2+ | 29% | 3.49 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FC Dallas and San Jose Earthquakes recent form
FC Dallas
3W 2D 1L
San Jose Earthquakes
2W 4D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Dallas at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-5-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.86
- Goals against / match
- 1.43
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 14
- They have won 14 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
San Jose Earthquakes away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-5-3
- Win rate
- 47%
- Goals for / match
- 1.73
- Goals against / match
- 1.27
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 15
- They have won 13 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Dallas at home only, San Jose Earthquakes away only.
Injuries & availability
FC Dallas absences
-
A. A. Julio Santos
lower-body injury
-
Geovane Jesus
knee injury
- Kaick personal reasons
- L. Farrington lower-body injury
- S. Sarver suspended
San Jose Earthquakes absences
-
B. Kikanovic
lower-body injury
-
D. Johnson
lower-body injury
-
D. Jones
achilles tendon injury
- J. A. Gonzalez Mendoza injury
- J. Skahan lower-body injury
-
N. Adimabua
hernia
- N. Tsakiris upper-body injury
-
P. Judd
yellow cards
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: FC Dallas 3 · draws 5 · San Jose Earthquakes 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | San Jose Earthquakes | 2-3 | FC Dallas | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-07-17 | San Jose Earthquakes | 2-2 | FC Dallas | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-06-26 | FC Dallas | 2-4 | San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-10-03 | San Jose Earthquakes | 3-2 | FC Dallas | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-02-25 | FC Dallas | 2-1 | San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-10-08 | FC Dallas | 1-1 | San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-05-28 | San Jose Earthquakes | 1-1 | FC Dallas | Major League Soccer |
| 2022-09-18 | San Jose Earthquakes | 1-1 | FC Dallas | Major League Soccer |
| 2022-08-14 | FC Dallas | 4-1 | San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer |
| 2021-11-07 | San Jose Earthquakes | 1-1 | FC Dallas | Major League Soccer |
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
- Orlando City SC v New York City FC — match page 2026-10-24
- Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire 2026-10-24
- DC United v FC Cincinnati — match page 2026-10-24
- Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United FC 2026-10-25
- Sporting Kansas City vs Austin 2026-10-25
- Real Salt Lake v St. Louis City — match page 2026-10-25
- Colorado Rapids vs Vancouver Whitecaps — team news & stats 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- FC Dallas, previous: Houston Dynamo v FC Dallas analysis
- FC Dallas, next: FC Dallas v Columbus Crew analysis
- San Jose Earthquakes, previous: San Jose Earthquakes v Nashville SC analysis
- San Jose Earthquakes, next: San Jose Earthquakes – Colorado Rapids, 2026-10-29