Updated

Major League Soccer · Matchday 31

DC United vs FC Cincinnati

· Audi Field, Washington· Referee Jon Freemon

Full time0 – 2

Alin prediction was FC Cincinnati to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
DC UnitedDrawFC Cincinnati

DC United vs FC Cincinnati: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceDC UnitedDrawFC Cincinnati
Model39%24%37%
Market34%24%42%
Published35%24%41%
Edge+1%0%-1%
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

DC United vs FC Cincinnati odds movement

Median bookmaker price on FC Cincinnati, 5 snapshots since 2026-10-22.

Opened 2.20Now 2.23 +0.02
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
DC United2.772.76-0.01
Draw3.904.00+0.10
FC Cincinnati2.202.23+0.02

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

DC United and FC Cincinnati expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.74DC United
1.70FC Cincinnati
Total expected goals
3.44
Attack rating (DC United / FC Cincinnati)
0.80 / 0.98
Defence rating (DC United / FC Cincinnati)
1.25 / 1.26

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

DC United vs FC Cincinnati score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.1% 4.5% 4.6% 2.6% 1.6% 1 4.6% 10.4% 8.0% 4.6% 2.8% 2 4.9% 8.3% 7.0% 4.0% 2.5% 3 2.8% 4.8% 4.1% 2.3% 1.4% 4+ 1.8% 3.1% 2.6% 1.5% 0.9%

Rows: DC United goals. Columns: FC Cincinnati goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

DC United vs FC Cincinnati goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 87%
Over 2.5 67%
Over 3.5 45%
Both teams to score
68%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for DC United vs FC Cincinnati

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2DC United35%2.83
Draw24%4.21
FC Cincinnati41%2.44
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.567%1.50
Under 2.533%3.01
Both teams to scoreYes68%1.46
No32%3.16
Double chance1X (DC United or draw)59%1.69
12 (either side)76%1.31
X2 (draw or FC Cincinnati)65%1.55
Handicap -1FC Cincinnati win by 2+19%5.21
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

DC United and FC Cincinnati recent form

DC United 1W 1D 4L
FC Cincinnati 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

DC United at home

Record (W-D-L)
5-5-5
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
1.73
Clean sheets
3 of 15
  • They have won 7 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FC Cincinnati away

Record (W-D-L)
2-6-7
Win rate
13%
Goals for / match
1.60
Goals against / match
2.73
Clean sheets
0 of 15
  • They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
  • They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 30 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
  • 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: DC United at home only, FC Cincinnati away only.

Injuries & availability

DC United absences

  • G. Segal leg injury
  • H. Kijima leg injury
  • L. Munteanu leg injury
  • S. Johnson leg injury

FC Cincinnati absences

  • E. Echenique leg injury
  • J. Malatini thigh injury
  • J. Martinez knee injury
  • M. Robinson injury
  • T. Malacia ankle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

DC United lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 S. Johnson
  2. 6 K. Kurokawa
  3. 15 K. Rowles
  4. 3 L. Bartlett
  5. 5 S. Hefti
  6. 7 Peglow
  7. 21 A. Dozzell
  8. 23 B. Servania
  9. 2 K. Nono
  10. 9 T. Baribo
  11. 25 J. Hopkins

Bench: M. Peltola, J. Stroud, C. Antley, S. Nealis, N. Ordaz, A. Bono, Nikola Markovic, O. Avilez, K. Castillo

FC Cincinnati lineup · 3-5-2

  1. 18 R. Celentano
  2. 15 T. Hadebe
  3. 4 N. Hagglund
  4. 24 K. Smith
  5. 29 Bryan Josías Ramírez León
  6. 5 O. Nwobodo
  7. 10 Evander
  8. 20 P. Bucha
  9. 23 D. Douděra
  10. 9 K. Denkey
  11. 16 T. Barlow

Bench: A. Powell, S. Gidi, E. Louro, K. Mboma Dem, G. Valenzuela, B. Anunga, J. Martínez, A. Chirila, A. Jabbari

DC United vs FC Cincinnati head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: DC United 4 · draws 1 · FC Cincinnati 5.

DC UnitedDrawsFC Cincinnati
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-10-21FC Cincinnati2-1DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
2025-05-31FC Cincinnati1-2DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
2025-04-12DC United0-1FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
2024-07-03DC United2-3FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
2024-03-10FC Cincinnati0-0DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
2023-06-24DC United3-0FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
2023-05-06FC Cincinnati2-1DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
2022-10-09DC United2-5FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
2022-03-05FC Cincinnati0-1DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
2021-09-25DC United4-2FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer

Other Matchday 31 fixtures

Before and after this match