Toronto FC vs DC United preview
In the match between Toronto FC and DC United, the 1X2 probabilities show Toronto FC at 61%, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1 (10%). The model suggests a strong chance for Over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams to score at 64%.
However, Toronto FC's recent form includes two losses in their last three matches, which could impact their performance. DC United has also struggled, with four losses in their last six games. The head-to-head record is balanced, with each team having one win and one draw in the last three encounters. This makes the outcome less predictable despite the probabilities favoring Toronto FC.
Toronto FC vs DC United: model vs market
| Source | Toronto FC | Draw | DC United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61% | 21% | 18% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 61% | 21% | 18% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.30 vs 1.22.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Toronto FC and DC United expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.52
- Attack rating (Toronto FC / DC United)
- 1.06 / 0.80
- Defence rating (Toronto FC / DC United)
- 1.10 / 1.25
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Toronto FC vs DC United score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Toronto FC goals. Columns: DC United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Toronto FC vs DC United goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Toronto FC vs DC United
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Toronto FC | 61% | 1.64 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.78 | |
| DC United | 18% | 5.48 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.47 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.15 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.56 |
| No | 36% | 2.79 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Toronto FC or draw) | 82% | 1.22 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or DC United) | 39% | 2.56 | |
| Handicap -1 | Toronto FC win by 2+ | 40% | 2.52 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Toronto FC and DC United recent form
Toronto FC
2W 1D 3L
DC United
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Toronto FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-9-2
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 2.12
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 16
- They have won 8 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 30 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
DC United away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-7-6
- Win rate
- 13%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 15
- They have won 7 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Toronto FC at home only, DC United away only.
Toronto FC vs DC United head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Toronto FC 1 · draws 1 · DC United 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | DC United | 2-1 | Toronto FC | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-05-10 | Toronto FC | 2-0 | DC United | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-02-23 | DC United | 2-2 | Toronto FC | Major League Soccer |
Other Matchday 32 fixtures
- New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- New England Revolution vs New York Red Bulls 2026-10-28
- Inter Miami v FC Cincinnati — match page 2026-10-28
- Charlotte vs CF Montreal — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- FC Dallas vs Columbus Crew 2026-10-29
- Chicago Fire v Orlando City SC — match page 2026-10-29
- Minnesota United FC vs Sporting Kansas City — team news & stats 2026-10-29
- Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union 2026-10-29
Before and after this match
- Toronto FC, previous: Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC: odds and pick
- DC United, previous: DC United vs FC Cincinnati prediction