New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC preview
In the match between New York City FC and Atlanta United FC, the 1X2 probabilities show New York City FC at 38%, Atlanta United FC at 33%, and a draw at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 9% chance according to our model.
Both teams to score stands at 54%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 48%. New York City FC has an expected goals figure of 1.35, slightly higher than Atlanta United FC's 1.25. Recent form shows New York City FC with 1 win in their last 5 matches, while Atlanta United FC has managed 2 wins in their last 5. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty.
New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC: model vs market
| Source | New York City FC | Draw | Atlanta United FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38% | 29% | 33% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 38% | 29% | 33% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
New York City FC and Atlanta United FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.60
- Attack rating (New York City FC / Atlanta United FC)
- 0.72 / 0.98
- Defence rating (New York City FC / Atlanta United FC)
- 0.92 / 1.08
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: New York City FC goals. Columns: Atlanta United FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | New York City FC | 38% | 2.64 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.46 | |
| Atlanta United FC | 33% | 3.01 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.08 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.85 |
| No | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Double chance | 1X (New York City FC or draw) | 67% | 1.50 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Atlanta United FC) | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Handicap -1 | New York City FC win by 2+ | 18% | 5.57 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
New York City FC and Atlanta United FC recent form
New York City FC
1W 2D 3L
Atlanta United FC
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
New York City FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-5-6
- Win rate
- 27%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.47
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 15
- They have won 8 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atlanta United FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-4-7
- Win rate
- 27%
- Goals for / match
- 1.07
- Goals against / match
- 1.47
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 15
- They have won 8 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
League matches this season before kick-off: New York City FC at home only, Atlanta United FC away only.
New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: New York City FC 3 · draws 6 · Atlanta United FC 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Atlanta United FC | 2-2 | New York City FC | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-06-12 | New York City FC | 4-0 | Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-03-29 | Atlanta United FC | 4-3 | New York City FC | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-07-17 | Atlanta United FC | 2-2 | New York City FC | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-04-06 | New York City FC | 1-1 | Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-06-21 | Atlanta United FC | 2-2 | New York City FC | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-04-08 | New York City FC | 1-1 | Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer |
| 2022-10-09 | Atlanta United FC | 1-2 | New York City FC | Major League Soccer |
| 2022-07-03 | New York City FC | 2-2 | Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer |
| 2021-11-21 | New York City FC | 2-0 | Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer |
Other Matchday 32 fixtures
- Toronto FC v DC United — match page 2026-10-28
- New England Revolution vs New York Red Bulls 2026-10-28
- Inter Miami v FC Cincinnati — match page 2026-10-28
- Charlotte vs CF Montreal — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- FC Dallas vs Columbus Crew 2026-10-29
- Chicago Fire v Orlando City SC — match page 2026-10-29
- Minnesota United FC vs Sporting Kansas City — team news & stats 2026-10-29
- Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union 2026-10-29
Before and after this match
- New York City FC, previous: Orlando City SC – New York City FC, 2026-10-24
- Atlanta United FC, previous: Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire: odds and pick