Chicago Fire vs Orlando City SC preview
In the match between Chicago Fire and Orlando City SC, the key figures are 39% for both Chicago Fire and Orlando City SC in the 1X2 probabilities. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 7% chance. The model indicates a strong likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 76% and both teams to score at 75%.
Chicago Fire's expected goals stand at 1.99, while Orlando City SC's is slightly higher at 2.00. Recent form shows Chicago Fire with a record of L-L-W-W-W-L and Orlando City SC at W-D-W-L-L-L. Despite Chicago Fire's favorable head-to-head record of 3 wins and 1 draw in the last 4 encounters, the confidence grade is C, suggesting that unexpected outcomes could still occur.
Chicago Fire vs Orlando City SC: model vs market
| Source | Chicago Fire | Draw | Orlando City SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 22% | 39% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 39% | 22% | 39% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Chicago Fire and Orlando City SC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.98
- Attack rating (Chicago Fire / Orlando City SC)
- 0.92 / 1.41
- Defence rating (Chicago Fire / Orlando City SC)
- 1.03 / 1.24
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Chicago Fire vs Orlando City SC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Chicago Fire goals. Columns: Orlando City SC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Chicago Fire vs Orlando City SC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 75%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Chicago Fire vs Orlando City SC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chicago Fire | 39% | 2.59 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.50 | |
| Orlando City SC | 39% | 2.56 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76% | 1.32 |
| Under 2.5 | 24% | 4.15 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75% | 1.33 |
| No | 25% | 4.05 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Chicago Fire or draw) | 61% | 1.64 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Orlando City SC) | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Handicap -1 | Orlando City SC win by 2+ | 22% | 4.57 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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| 1 |  |
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Chicago Fire and Orlando City SC recent form
Chicago Fire
3W 0D 3L
Orlando City SC
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Chicago Fire at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-1-5
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.87
- Goals against / match
- 1.27
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 15
- They have won 14 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Orlando City SC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-9
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.87
- Goals against / match
- 3.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 15
- They have won 12 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Chicago Fire at home only, Orlando City SC away only.
Chicago Fire vs Orlando City SC head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Chicago Fire 3 · draws 1 · Orlando City SC 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Orlando City SC | 1-2 | Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-10-23 | Chicago Fire | 3-1 | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-05-31 | Orlando City SC | 1-3 | Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-05-04 | Chicago Fire | 0-0 | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer |
Other Matchday 32 fixtures
- Toronto FC v DC United — match page 2026-10-28
- New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- New England Revolution vs New York Red Bulls 2026-10-28
- FC Dallas vs Columbus Crew 2026-10-29
- Minnesota United FC vs Sporting Kansas City — team news & stats 2026-10-29
- Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union 2026-10-29
- Austin v Real Salt Lake — match page 2026-10-29
- St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers — team news & stats 2026-10-29
Before and after this match
- Chicago Fire, previous: Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire: odds and pick
- Orlando City SC, previous: Orlando City SC – New York City FC, 2026-10-24