New England Revolution vs New York Red Bulls preview
In the match between New England Revolution and New York Red Bulls, the 1X2 probabilities indicate a strong likelihood for New England Revolution at 56%, with a most likely scoreline of 2-0 (10%). New England Revolution's expected goals stand at 1.84, compared to New York Red Bulls' 0.99, suggesting a potential advantage for the home side.
However, New York Red Bulls have won 2 of the last 3 head-to-head encounters, which could challenge the predictions. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are each at 54%, indicating a possibility for a more open game than the expected scoreline suggests. The recent form shows New England Revolution with 4 wins in their last 6 matches, while New York Red Bulls have also shown resilience with 4 wins in their last 6.
New England Revolution vs New York Red Bulls: model vs market
| Source | New England Revolution | Draw | New York Red Bulls |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 25% | 19% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 56% | 25% | 19% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 0.99.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
New England Revolution and New York Red Bulls expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.83
- Attack rating (New England Revolution / New York Red Bulls)
- 1.07 / 0.71
- Defence rating (New England Revolution / New York Red Bulls)
- 1.01 / 0.99
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
New England Revolution vs New York Red Bulls score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: New England Revolution goals. Columns: New York Red Bulls goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
New England Revolution vs New York Red Bulls goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for New England Revolution vs New York Red Bulls
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | New England Revolution | 56% | 1.78 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.04 | |
| New York Red Bulls | 19% | 5.28 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.85 |
| No | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Double chance | 1X (New England Revolution or draw) | 81% | 1.23 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or New York Red Bulls) | 44% | 2.29 | |
| Handicap -1 | New England Revolution win by 2+ | 33% | 3.02 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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New England Revolution and New York Red Bulls recent form
New England Revolution
4W 0D 2L
New York Red Bulls
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
New England Revolution at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-2-3
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.07
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 15
- They have won 16 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
New York Red Bulls away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-3-7
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.13
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 15
- They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: New England Revolution at home only, New York Red Bulls away only.
New England Revolution vs New York Red Bulls head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: New England Revolution 1 · draws 0 · New York Red Bulls 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | New York Red Bulls | 1-0 | New England Revolution | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-07-16 | New York Red Bulls | 5-3 | New England Revolution | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-03-29 | New England Revolution | 2-1 | New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer |
Other Matchday 32 fixtures
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- FC Dallas vs Columbus Crew 2026-10-29
- Chicago Fire v Orlando City SC — match page 2026-10-29
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Before and after this match
- New England Revolution, previous: Philadelphia Union v New England Revolution analysis
- New York Red Bulls, previous: New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami prediction