Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union preview
Nashville SC faces Philadelphia Union with a 53% probability of winning compared to 24% for Philadelphia. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 2.11 for Nashville SC and 1.39 for Philadelphia Union. Both teams to score stands at 67%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 68%, indicating a strong chance for a high-scoring match.
However, Philadelphia Union comes in with solid recent form, having won 5 of their last 6 matches. This could challenge Nashville SC's dominance in their recent head-to-head, where they have won 3 out of the last 4 encounters. The confidence grade is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the outcome.
Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union: model vs market
| Source | Nashville SC | Draw | Philadelphia Union |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 23% | 24% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 53% | 23% | 24% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.11 vs 1.39.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Nashville SC and Philadelphia Union expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.50
- Attack rating (Nashville SC / Philadelphia Union)
- 1.39 / 1.61
- Defence rating (Nashville SC / Philadelphia Union)
- 0.62 / 0.87
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Nashville SC goals. Columns: Philadelphia Union goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nashville SC | 53% | 1.88 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.40 | |
| Philadelphia Union | 24% | 4.13 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.47 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.12 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.49 |
| No | 33% | 3.02 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Nashville SC or draw) | 76% | 1.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Philadelphia Union) | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Handicap -1 | Nashville SC win by 2+ | 32% | 3.09 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Nashville SC and Philadelphia Union recent form
Nashville SC
4W 2D 0L
Philadelphia Union
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Nashville SC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 14-1-0
- Win rate
- 93%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 15
- They have won 20 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Philadelphia Union away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-2-7
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 2.27
- Goals against / match
- 2.13
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 15
- They have won 13 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Nashville SC at home only, Philadelphia Union away only.
Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Nashville SC 3 · draws 1 · Philadelphia Union 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Philadelphia Union | 0-0 | Nashville SC | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-09-17 | Nashville SC | 3-1 | Philadelphia Union | US Open Cup |
| 2025-07-06 | Nashville SC | 1-0 | Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-03-16 | Philadelphia Union | 1-3 | Nashville SC | Major League Soccer |
Other Matchday 32 fixtures
- Toronto FC v DC United — match page 2026-10-28
- New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- New England Revolution vs New York Red Bulls 2026-10-28
- FC Dallas vs Columbus Crew 2026-10-29
- Chicago Fire v Orlando City SC — match page 2026-10-29
- Minnesota United FC vs Sporting Kansas City — team news & stats 2026-10-29
- Austin v Real Salt Lake — match page 2026-10-29
- St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers — team news & stats 2026-10-29
Before and after this match
- Nashville SC, previous: CF Montreal v Nashville SC analysis
- Philadelphia Union, previous: Philadelphia Union v New England Revolution analysis