CF Montreal vs Nashville SC preview
CF Montreal faces Nashville SC with a 10% chance of winning compared to Nashville's 71%. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, which occurs with a 13% probability. Nashville SC has been in better form, going D-W-W-W-W-D in their last six matches, while CF Montreal has struggled with a record of D-L-L-W-L-L.
While our model suggests a 58% chance for Over 2.5 goals, both teams to score sits at 48%. CF Montreal's expected goals are 0.75, significantly lower than Nashville SC's 2.27. This disparity in expected goals could lead to a different outcome than predicted, especially if CF Montreal can improve their attacking performance.
CF Montreal vs Nashville SC: model vs market
| Source | CF Montreal | Draw | Nashville SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 10% | 19% | 71% |
| Market | 19% | 22% | 58% |
| Published | 17% | 22% | 61% |
| Edge | -2% | -1% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.27 vs 0.75.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Nashville SC below our published probability: +3.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.65, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
CF Montreal vs Nashville SC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Nashville SC, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| CF Montreal | 4.53 | 4.89 | +0.37 |
| Draw | 4.03 | 4.20 | +0.17 |
| Nashville SC | 1.63 | 1.62 | -0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
CF Montreal and Nashville SC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.02
- Attack rating (CF Montreal / Nashville SC)
- 0.69 / 1.39
- Defence rating (CF Montreal / Nashville SC)
- 1.19 / 0.62
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
CF Montreal vs Nashville SC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: CF Montreal goals. Columns: Nashville SC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
CF Montreal vs Nashville SC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for CF Montreal vs Nashville SC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CF Montreal | 17% | 5.91 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.63 | |
| Nashville SC | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.39 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.07 |
| No | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Double chance | 1X (CF Montreal or draw) | 39% | 2.60 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Nashville SC) | 83% | 1.20 | |
| Handicap -1 | Nashville SC win by 2+ | 48% | 2.08 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
CF Montreal and Nashville SC recent form
CF Montreal
1W 1D 4L
Nashville SC
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
CF Montreal at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-5-6
- Win rate
- 27%
- Goals for / match
- 1.27
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 15
- They have won 6 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Nashville SC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-6-3
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.27
- Goals against / match
- 0.73
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 15
- They have won 20 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: CF Montreal at home only, Nashville SC away only.
Injuries & availability
CF Montreal absences
-
B. Ceballos
lower-body injury
-
B. Hidalgo
groin injury
-
D. Sealy
lower-body injury
-
T. Gillier
upper-body injury
Nashville SC absences
- F. Camara lower-body injury
- O. Presthus lower-body injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
CF Montreal vs Nashville SC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: CF Montreal 1 · draws 3 · Nashville SC 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Nashville SC | 1-0 | CF Montreal | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-10-04 | CF Montreal | 1-1 | Nashville SC | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-03-23 | Nashville SC | 3-0 | CF Montreal | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-05-25 | CF Montreal | 0-0 | Nashville SC | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-05-05 | Nashville SC | 4-1 | CF Montreal | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-06-21 | CF Montreal | 1-0 | Nashville SC | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-03-12 | Nashville SC | 2-0 | CF Montreal | Major League Soccer |
| 2022-05-19 | Nashville SC | 2-1 | CF Montreal | Major League Soccer |
| 2021-09-12 | CF Montreal | 0-1 | Nashville SC | Major League Soccer |
| 2021-06-27 | Nashville SC | 1-1 | CF Montreal | Major League Soccer |
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
- Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami 2026-10-24
- Orlando City SC v New York City FC — match page 2026-10-24
- Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire 2026-10-24
- DC United v FC Cincinnati — match page 2026-10-24
- FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United FC 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- CF Montreal, previous: Seattle Sounders – CF Montreal, 2026-10-18
- CF Montreal, next: Charlotte – CF Montreal, 2026-10-28
- Nashville SC, previous: San Jose Earthquakes v Nashville SC analysis
- Nashville SC, next: Nashville SC – Philadelphia Union, 2026-10-29