Updated

Major League Soccer · Matchday 31

Orlando City SC vs New York City FC

· Exploria Stadium, Orlando· Referee Elijio Arreguin

Alin prediction Orlando City SC to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Orlando City SCDrawNew York City FC
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.26 vs 1.24.
  • RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Best market odds
Orlando City SC2.30 Draw3.97 New York City FC2.90

Price as of

Expected return at 2.30: +5.8% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 9 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Orlando City SC vs New York City FC preview

Orlando City SC faces New York City FC with a 60% chance of winning according to our model, while the expected scoreline is 2-1. Orlando City SC has an expected goals total of 2.26, compared to New York City FC's 1.23.

However, New York City FC has won all 3 of their last encounters against Orlando City SC. If they can replicate their previous performances, it could lead to a different outcome. Additionally, while our model predicts a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams to score at 64%, the match could still end with fewer goals if defenses perform strongly.

Orlando City SC vs New York City FC: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceOrlando City SCDrawNew York City FC
Model60%21%19%
Market41%24%34%
Published46%24%30%
Edge+5%-1%-4%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.26 vs 1.24.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Orlando City SC below our published probability: +4.5 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.30, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +5.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Orlando City SC vs New York City FC odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Orlando City SC, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-18.

Opened 2.27Now 2.26 -0.01
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Orlando City SC2.272.26-0.01
Draw3.773.88+0.10
New York City FC2.632.74+0.11

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Orlando City SC and New York City FC expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.26Orlando City SC
1.24New York City FC
Total expected goals
3.50
Attack rating (Orlando City SC / New York City FC)
1.41 / 0.72
Defence rating (Orlando City SC / New York City FC)
1.24 / 0.92

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Orlando City SC vs New York City FC score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.9% 2.9% 2.3% 1.0% 0.4% 1 6.0% 9.3% 5.2% 2.2% 0.9% 2 7.7% 9.6% 5.9% 2.4% 1.0% 3 5.8% 7.2% 4.5% 1.8% 0.7% 4+ 5.6% 6.9% 4.3% 1.8% 0.7%

Rows: Orlando City SC goals. Columns: New York City FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Orlando City SC vs New York City FC goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 87%
Over 2.5 68%
Over 3.5 46%
Both teams to score
64%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Orlando City SC vs New York City FC

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Orlando City SC46%2.17
Draw24%4.25
New York City FC30%3.28
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.568%1.47
Under 2.532%3.11
Both teams to scoreYes64%1.55
No36%2.81
Double chance1X (Orlando City SC or draw)70%1.44
12 (either side)76%1.31
X2 (draw or New York City FC)54%1.85
Handicap -1Orlando City SC win by 2+38%2.60
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Orlando City SC and New York City FC recent form

Orlando City SC 2W 1D 3L
New York City FC 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Orlando City SC at home

Record (W-D-L)
9-2-4
Win rate
60%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
3 of 15
  • They have won 11 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 29 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

New York City FC away

Record (W-D-L)
4-5-6
Win rate
27%
Goals for / match
1.07
Goals against / match
1.27
Clean sheets
2 of 15
  • They have won 8 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 29 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Orlando City SC at home only, New York City FC away only.

Injuries & availability

Orlando City SC absences

  • B. Rhein injury
  • G. Dorsey back injury
  • Luis Otavio yellow cards
  • R. Jansson foot injury
  • T. Spicer foot injury
  • Vinicius Nogueira shoulder injury

New York City FC absences

  • A. Farnos leg injury
  • D. Baiera knee injury
  • K. Parks leg injury
  • K. Trewin ankle injury
  • M. Moralez knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Orlando City SC vs New York City FC head-to-head

Last 3 meetings: Orlando City SC 0 · draws 0 · New York City FC 3.

Orlando City SCDrawsNew York City FC
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-07New York City FC5-0Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
2025-07-17Orlando City SC1-2New York City FCMajor League Soccer
2025-03-09New York City FC2-1Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer

Other Matchday 31 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Orlando City SC to win Predicted score 2 – 1 C Bet on Orlando City SC
Our pick: Orlando City SC to win 18+ Bet Now