Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United FC preview
Houston Dynamo faces Minnesota United FC with a 52% probability of winning, compared to 26% for Minnesota. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with expected goals of 2.29 for Houston and 1.62 for Minnesota. The high chances for Over 2.5 goals at 75% and both teams to score at 73% suggest a potentially high-scoring match.
However, the recent form could influence the outcome. Houston Dynamo has three draws and two losses in their last five matches, while Minnesota United FC has one win, three draws, and one loss in the same period. The head-to-head record shows Minnesota with 5 wins out of the last 10 encounters, which could challenge Houston's home advantage.
Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United FC: model vs market
| Source | Houston Dynamo | Draw | Minnesota United FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 21% | 26% |
| Market | 45% | 26% | 30% |
| Published | 46% | 25% | 29% |
| Edge | +2% | -1% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.29 vs 1.62.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.21, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Houston Dynamo, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Dynamo | 1.96 | 2.12 | +0.17 |
| Draw | 3.65 | 3.65 | -0.00 |
| Minnesota United FC | 3.35 | 3.20 | -0.15 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Houston Dynamo and Minnesota United FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.91
- Attack rating (Houston Dynamo / Minnesota United FC)
- 0.95 / 1.28
- Defence rating (Houston Dynamo / Minnesota United FC)
- 0.91 / 1.39
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Houston Dynamo goals. Columns: Minnesota United FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 73%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Houston Dynamo | 46% | 2.16 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.03 | |
| Minnesota United FC | 29% | 3.47 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75% | 1.34 |
| Under 2.5 | 25% | 3.97 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73% | 1.37 |
| No | 27% | 3.68 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Houston Dynamo or draw) | 71% | 1.40 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Minnesota United FC) | 54% | 1.87 | |
| Handicap -1 | Houston Dynamo win by 2+ | 32% | 3.08 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Houston Dynamo and Minnesota United FC recent form
Houston Dynamo
0W 4D 2L
Minnesota United FC
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Houston Dynamo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-4-3
- Win rate
- 53%
- Goals for / match
- 1.27
- Goals against / match
- 0.93
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 15
- They have won 13 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Minnesota United FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-3-7
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.87
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 15
- They have won 8 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Houston Dynamo at home only, Minnesota United FC away only.
Injuries & availability
Houston Dynamo absences
-
A. Resch
yellow cards
-
Felipe Andrade
injury
-
J. Maurer
concussion
Minnesota United FC absences
-
A. Smir
knee injury
-
P. Stroud
muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Houston Dynamo 3 · draws 2 · Minnesota United FC 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Minnesota United FC | 2-2 | Houston Dynamo | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-06-26 | Minnesota United FC | 3-1 | Houston Dynamo | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-05-15 | Houston Dynamo | 2-0 | Minnesota United FC | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-07-14 | Houston Dynamo | 1-1 | Minnesota United FC | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-04-14 | Minnesota United FC | 1-2 | Houston Dynamo | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-07-13 | Houston Dynamo | 0-3 | Minnesota United FC | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-05-24 | Houston Dynamo | 4-0 | Minnesota United FC | US Open Cup |
| 2023-05-18 | Minnesota United FC | 1-0 | Houston Dynamo | Major League Soccer |
| 2022-08-27 | Minnesota United FC | 2-1 | Houston Dynamo | Major League Soccer |
| 2022-07-24 | Houston Dynamo | 1-2 | Minnesota United FC | Major League Soccer |
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
- Orlando City SC v New York City FC — match page 2026-10-24
- Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire 2026-10-24
- DC United v FC Cincinnati — match page 2026-10-24
- FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Sporting Kansas City vs Austin 2026-10-25
- Real Salt Lake v St. Louis City — match page 2026-10-25
- Colorado Rapids vs Vancouver Whitecaps — team news & stats 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Houston Dynamo, previous: Houston Dynamo v FC Dallas analysis
- Houston Dynamo, next: Seattle Sounders vs Houston Dynamo prediction
- Minnesota United FC, previous: Minnesota United FC – St. Louis City, 2026-10-17
- Minnesota United FC, next: Minnesota United FC vs Sporting Kansas City prediction