Updated

Major League Soccer · Matchday 31

Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire

· Atlanta Stadium, Atlanta· Referee Victor Rivas

Full time2 – 3

Alin prediction was Atlanta United FC to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Atlanta United FCDrawChicago Fire

Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAtlanta United FCDrawChicago Fire
Model45%25%29%
Market36%24%40%
Published38%25%37%
Edge+2%0%-3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 1.37.
  • The market prices Atlanta United FC below our published probability: +2.4 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Atlanta United FC, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-18.

Opened 2.30Now 2.67 +0.37
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Atlanta United FC2.302.67+0.37
Draw3.753.90+0.15
Chicago Fire2.652.38-0.27

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Atlanta United FC and Chicago Fire expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.74Atlanta United FC
1.37Chicago Fire
Total expected goals
3.11
Attack rating (Atlanta United FC / Chicago Fire)
0.98 / 0.92
Defence rating (Atlanta United FC / Chicago Fire)
1.08 / 1.03

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.5% 5.0% 4.2% 1.9% 0.9% 1 6.7% 11.7% 7.3% 3.3% 1.5% 2 6.8% 9.3% 6.3% 2.9% 1.3% 3 3.9% 5.4% 3.7% 1.7% 0.8% 4+ 2.5% 3.5% 2.4% 1.1% 0.5%

Rows: Atlanta United FC goals. Columns: Chicago Fire goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 83%
Over 2.5 60%
Over 3.5 38%
Both teams to score
63%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Atlanta United FC38%2.63
Draw25%4.06
Chicago Fire37%2.68
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.560%1.66
Under 2.540%2.51
Both teams to scoreYes63%1.60
No37%2.67
Double chance1X (Atlanta United FC or draw)63%1.59
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Chicago Fire)62%1.62
Handicap -1Atlanta United FC win by 2+25%4.02
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Atlanta United FC and Chicago Fire recent form

Atlanta United FC 2W 2D 2L
Chicago Fire 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Atlanta United FC at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-2-9
Win rate
27%
Goals for / match
1.40
Goals against / match
1.93
Clean sheets
1 of 15
  • They have won 8 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).

Chicago Fire away

Record (W-D-L)
5-5-5
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.60
Goals against / match
1.67
Clean sheets
3 of 15
  • They have won 14 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 30 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Atlanta United FC at home only, Chicago Fire away only.

Injuries & availability

Atlanta United FC absences

  • D. Chica knee injury
  • W. Reilly ankle injury

Chicago Fire absences

  • A. Franco knee injury
  • J. Elliott yellow cards
  • R. Lod lower-body injury
  • S. Rogers lower-body injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Atlanta United FC lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 L. Hoyos
  2. 3 E. Báez
  3. 6 J. Alonso
  4. 27 P. Díaz
  5. 55 T. Jacob
  6. 11 G. Galoppo
  7. 14 M. Amaro
  8. 10 M. Almirón
  9. 35 A. Fortune
  10. 59 A. Miranchuk
  11. 36 B. Embolo

Bench: E. Mihaj, S. Alzate, T. Muyumba, Sergio Santos, L. Brennan, F. Picault, Jayden Hibbert, Matthew Edwards, C. Sanchez

Chicago Fire lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 1 C. Brady
  2. 32 N. Allen
  3. 4 M. Mbokazi
  4. 21 A. Hanche-Olsen
  5. 24 J. Dean
  6. 7 M. Haile-Selassie
  7. 42 T. D'Avilla
  8. 6 A. Salétros
  9. 19 J. Bamba
  10. 9 R. Lewandowski
  11. 11 P. Zinckernagel

Bench: Leonardo Barroso, P. Dithejane, A. Gutman, J. Gómez, M. Pineda, A. Mekvabishvili, D. Poręba, S. Oregel, J. Cohen

Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Atlanta United FC 3 · draws 4 · Chicago Fire 3.

Atlanta United FCDrawsChicago Fire
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-12Chicago Fire1-0Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
2025-07-16Atlanta United FC2-2Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
2025-05-10Chicago Fire2-1Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
2024-04-28Chicago Fire0-0Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
2024-03-31Atlanta United FC3-0Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
2023-05-21Chicago Fire3-3Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
2023-04-23Atlanta United FC2-1Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
2022-07-30Chicago Fire0-0Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
2022-05-07Atlanta United FC4-1Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
2021-07-04Chicago Fire3-0Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer

Other Matchday 31 fixtures

Before and after this match