Sporting Kansas City vs Austin preview
Sporting Kansas City faces Austin with a 40% chance of winning compared to Austin's 36%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the model's expectation of 1.84 expected goals for Sporting Kansas City and 1.75 for Austin.
Both teams to score stands at 70%, and Over 2.5 goals is also at 70%. However, the recent form shows Sporting Kansas City with two losses in their last three matches, while Austin has struggled with three losses in their last five. This inconsistency could affect the outcome, making the match less predictable than the numbers suggest.
Sporting Kansas City vs Austin: model vs market
| Source | Sporting Kansas City | Draw | Austin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 24% | 36% |
| Market | 43% | 24% | 33% |
| Published | 42% | 24% | 34% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.25, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Sporting Kansas City vs Austin odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sporting Kansas City, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Kansas City | 2.10 | 2.20 | +0.10 |
| Draw | 3.77 | 3.90 | +0.13 |
| Austin | 2.92 | 2.90 | -0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sporting Kansas City and Austin expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.60
- Attack rating (Sporting Kansas City / Austin)
- 0.94 / 0.86
- Defence rating (Sporting Kansas City / Austin)
- 1.47 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sporting Kansas City vs Austin score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sporting Kansas City goals. Columns: Austin goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sporting Kansas City vs Austin goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sporting Kansas City vs Austin
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sporting Kansas City | 42% | 2.37 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.14 | |
| Austin | 34% | 2.98 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.30 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.42 |
| No | 30% | 3.39 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sporting Kansas City or draw) | 66% | 1.51 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Austin) | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sporting Kansas City win by 2+ | 22% | 4.59 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sporting Kansas City and Austin recent form
Sporting Kansas City
1W 1D 4L
Austin
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sporting Kansas City at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-4-8
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.47
- Goals against / match
- 2.13
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 15
- They have won 6 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 30 matches.
Austin away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-4-8
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.13
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 15
- They have won 7 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 30 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sporting Kansas City at home only, Austin away only.
Injuries & availability
Sporting Kansas City absences
-
Diego Borges
groin injury
- J. Reynolds muscle injury
- L. Johnsen hamstring injury
-
M. Mosquera
hamstring injury
-
O. Blorian
chest injury
-
O. Wolff
muscle injury
Austin absences
- Z. Kolmanic thigh injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Sporting Kansas City vs Austin head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Sporting Kansas City 4 · draws 0 · Austin 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Austin | 1-2 | Sporting Kansas City | Major League Soccer |
| 2026-02-14 | Sporting Kansas City | 2-0 | Austin | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2025-09-07 | Sporting Kansas City | 1-2 | Austin | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-02-23 | Austin | 1-0 | Sporting Kansas City | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-06-30 | Sporting Kansas City | 2-0 | Austin | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-05-19 | Austin | 3-2 | Sporting Kansas City | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-07-16 | Austin | 2-1 | Sporting Kansas City | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-06-11 | Sporting Kansas City | 4-1 | Austin | Major League Soccer |
| 2022-08-14 | Austin | 4-3 | Sporting Kansas City | Major League Soccer |
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
- Orlando City SC v New York City FC — match page 2026-10-24
- Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire 2026-10-24
- DC United v FC Cincinnati — match page 2026-10-24
- FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United FC 2026-10-25
- Real Salt Lake v St. Louis City — match page 2026-10-25
- Colorado Rapids vs Vancouver Whitecaps — team news & stats 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Sporting Kansas City, previous: Sporting Kansas City vs Real Salt Lake: odds and pick
- Sporting Kansas City, next: Minnesota United FC vs Sporting Kansas City prediction
- Austin, previous: Austin vs Vancouver Whitecaps prediction
- Austin, next: Austin v Real Salt Lake analysis