Austin vs Real Salt Lake preview
In the match between Austin and Real Salt Lake, the 1X2 probabilities show Austin at 41%, Real Salt Lake at 32%, and a draw at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance according to our model. Austin's recent form includes 3 losses and 2 draws, while Real Salt Lake has 2 wins and 1 draw in their last 6 matches.
The expectation for Over 2.5 goals stands at 56%, and both teams to score is at 60%. Austin has expected goals of 1.55, while Real Salt Lake has 1.36. These numbers suggest a competitive match, but if Austin's form continues to decline, it could impact their scoring ability.
Austin vs Real Salt Lake: model vs market
| Source | Austin | Draw | Real Salt Lake |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 27% | 32% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 41% | 27% | 32% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Austin and Real Salt Lake expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.91
- Attack rating (Austin / Real Salt Lake)
- 0.86 / 0.88
- Defence rating (Austin / Real Salt Lake)
- 1.12 / 1.03
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Austin vs Real Salt Lake score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Austin goals. Columns: Real Salt Lake goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Austin vs Real Salt Lake goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Austin vs Real Salt Lake
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Austin | 41% | 2.45 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.72 | |
| Real Salt Lake | 32% | 3.10 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.25 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.68 |
| No | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Austin or draw) | 68% | 1.48 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Real Salt Lake) | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Handicap -1 | Austin win by 2+ | 21% | 4.78 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Austin and Real Salt Lake recent form
Austin
1W 2D 3L
Real Salt Lake
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Austin at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-6-5
- Win rate
- 27%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 15
- They have won 7 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 30 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Real Salt Lake away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-10
- Win rate
- 13%
- Goals for / match
- 1.13
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 15
- They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Austin at home only, Real Salt Lake away only.
Austin vs Real Salt Lake head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Austin 0 · draws 1 · Real Salt Lake 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Real Salt Lake | 2-1 | Austin | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-09-28 | Real Salt Lake | 3-1 | Austin | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-05-29 | Austin | 1-1 | Real Salt Lake | Major League Soccer |
Other Matchday 32 fixtures
- Toronto FC v DC United — match page 2026-10-28
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- New England Revolution vs New York Red Bulls 2026-10-28
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- Chicago Fire v Orlando City SC — match page 2026-10-29
- Minnesota United FC vs Sporting Kansas City — team news & stats 2026-10-29
- Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union 2026-10-29
- St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers — team news & stats 2026-10-29
Before and after this match
- Austin, previous: Sporting Kansas City – Austin, 2026-10-25
- Real Salt Lake, previous: Real Salt Lake vs St. Louis City: odds and pick