Charlotte vs CF Montreal preview
In the fixture between Charlotte and CF Montreal, the 1X2 probabilities show Charlotte at 68% and CF Montreal at 13%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which aligns with Charlotte's expected goals of 2.35 compared to CF Montreal's 0.94.
However, the recent form indicates some uncertainty. Charlotte has drawn twice in their last six matches, while CF Montreal has lost four of their last six. Additionally, both teams to score stands at 56%, which suggests that while Charlotte is favored, CF Montreal could still find the net. This could impact the outcome, especially given the head-to-head record where CF Montreal has 5 wins in their last 9 encounters.
Charlotte vs CF Montreal: model vs market
| Source | Charlotte | Draw | CF Montreal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 68% | 19% | 13% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 68% | 19% | 13% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.35 vs 0.94.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Charlotte and CF Montreal expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.28
- Attack rating (Charlotte / CF Montreal)
- 1.14 / 0.69
- Defence rating (Charlotte / CF Montreal)
- 0.98 / 1.19
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Charlotte vs CF Montreal score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Charlotte goals. Columns: CF Montreal goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Charlotte vs CF Montreal goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Charlotte vs CF Montreal
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Charlotte | 68% | 1.47 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.15 | |
| CF Montreal | 13% | 7.97 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.76 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.79 |
| No | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Charlotte or draw) | 87% | 1.14 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or CF Montreal) | 32% | 3.13 | |
| Handicap -1 | Charlotte win by 2+ | 46% | 2.17 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Charlotte and CF Montreal recent form
Charlotte
2W 2D 2L
CF Montreal
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Charlotte at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-4-3
- Win rate
- 53%
- Goals for / match
- 1.93
- Goals against / match
- 1.07
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 15
- They have won 13 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
CF Montreal away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-11
- Win rate
- 13%
- Goals for / match
- 1.13
- Goals against / match
- 2.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 15
- They have won 6 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Charlotte at home only, CF Montreal away only.
Charlotte vs CF Montreal head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Charlotte 3 · draws 1 · CF Montreal 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | CF Montreal | 1-2 | Charlotte | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-09-27 | Charlotte | 1-4 | CF Montreal | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-04-12 | CF Montreal | 0-1 | Charlotte | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-10-05 | Charlotte | 2-0 | CF Montreal | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-09-14 | CF Montreal | 2-1 | Charlotte | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-07-15 | CF Montreal | 2-0 | Charlotte | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-06-24 | Charlotte | 0-0 | CF Montreal | Major League Soccer |
| 2022-06-25 | CF Montreal | 2-1 | Charlotte | Major League Soccer |
| 2022-05-14 | Charlotte | 0-2 | CF Montreal | Major League Soccer |
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Before and after this match
- Charlotte, previous: Portland Timbers v Charlotte analysis
- CF Montreal, previous: CF Montreal v Nashville SC analysis