Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte preview
In the match between Philadelphia Union and Charlotte, the 1X2 probabilities show Philadelphia Union at 67% and Charlotte at 15%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance. Philadelphia Union has been in strong form, winning their last 6 matches, while Charlotte's recent record includes 4 wins and 2 losses.
The expected goals indicate Philadelphia Union at 2.77 and Charlotte at 1.29. There is a 77% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance for both teams to score. However, the confidence grade is C, suggesting that unexpected outcomes could arise, particularly given the close head-to-head record of 4 wins each and 2 draws in their last 10 encounters.
Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte: model vs market
| Source | Philadelphia Union | Draw | Charlotte |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 68% | 17% | 15% |
| Market | 66% | 18% | 15% |
| Published | 67% | 18% | 15% |
| Edge | +2% | -1% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.77 vs 1.29.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.53, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Philadelphia Union, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Union | 1.55 | 1.40 | -0.15 |
| Draw | 4.50 | 5.10 | +0.60 |
| Charlotte | 5.00 | 6.00 | +1.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Philadelphia Union and Charlotte expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.06
- Attack rating (Philadelphia Union / Charlotte)
- 1.67 / 1.12
- Defence rating (Philadelphia Union / Charlotte)
- 0.84 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Philadelphia Union goals. Columns: Charlotte goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Philadelphia Union | 67% | 1.50 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.56 | |
| Charlotte | 15% | 6.54 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77% | 1.30 |
| Under 2.5 | 23% | 4.36 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.46 |
| No | 31% | 3.17 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Philadelphia Union or draw) | 85% | 1.18 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| X2 (draw or Charlotte) | 33% | 3.00 | |
| Handicap -1 | Philadelphia Union win by 2+ | 48% | 2.07 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Philadelphia Union and Charlotte recent form
Philadelphia Union
6W 0D 0L
Charlotte
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Philadelphia Union at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-4-3
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.79
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 14
- They have won 13 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Charlotte away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-3-6
- Win rate
- 36%
- Goals for / match
- 1.57
- Goals against / match
- 1.93
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 14
- They have won 13 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Philadelphia Union at home only, Charlotte away only.
Injuries & availability
Philadelphia Union absences
-
A. Anello
groin injury
Charlotte absences
- A. Doucoure inactive
-
A. Goodwin
foot injury
-
A. John
shoulder injury
-
N. Berchimas
foot injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Philadelphia Union lineup · 4-4-2
- 18 A. Blake
- 27 K. Wagner
- 26 N. Harriel
- 44 Neil Pierre
- 39 F. Westfield
- 19 I. Vassilev
- 4 J. Lukić
- 21 D. Jean-Jacques
- 6 Cavan Sullivan
- 9 B. Damiani
- 10 M. Iloski
Bench: J. Sery Larsen, A. Bedoya, J. Rafanello, B. Bender, E. Alladoh, A. Anello, Q. Sullivan, M. Jakupovic, A. Rick
Charlotte lineup · 4-3-3
- 1 K. Kahlina
- 23 D. Schnegg
- 22 H. Kessler
- 44 M. Agyemang
- 14 N. Byrne
- 16 Pep Biel
- 8 A. Westwood
- 28 D. Diani
- 10 A. Saint-Maximin
- 9 I. Toklomati Giorno
- 37 R. Aloko
Bench: T. Ream, A. Privett, L. Abada, B. Bronico, H. Toffolo, L. de la Torre, T. Miller, Tyger Smalls, Will Cleary
Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Philadelphia Union 4 · draws 2 · Charlotte 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Charlotte | 2-1 | Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-10-18 | Charlotte | 2-0 | Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-06-14 | Philadelphia Union | 2-1 | Charlotte | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-07-28 | Philadelphia Union | 1-0 | Charlotte | Leagues Cup |
| 2024-06-22 | Philadelphia Union | 0-2 | Charlotte | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-05-25 | Charlotte | 0-0 | Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-09-20 | Charlotte | 2-2 | Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-05-31 | Philadelphia Union | 1-0 | Charlotte | Major League Soccer |
| 2022-10-01 | Charlotte | 4-0 | Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer |
| 2022-04-03 | Philadelphia Union | 2-0 | Charlotte | Major League Soccer |
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
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- Houston Dynamo vs FC Dallas — team news & stats 2026-10-18
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Before and after this match
- Philadelphia Union, previous: Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union prediction
- Charlotte, previous: Columbus Crew v Charlotte analysis