San Diego vs Seattle Sounders preview
In the match between San Diego and Seattle Sounders, the 1X2 probabilities show San Diego at 39% and Seattle Sounders at 37%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 7% chance. Both teams to score stands at 67%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 66%.
San Diego's recent form includes 3 draws and 3 losses, while Seattle Sounders have won 4 of their last 6 matches. The expected goals suggest San Diego at 1.46 and Seattle Sounders at 1.96. A surprise could come from San Diego's ability to improve their form, which might affect the expected outcomes.
San Diego vs Seattle Sounders: model vs market
| Source | San Diego | Draw | Seattle Sounders |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28% | 24% | 48% |
| Market | 43% | 24% | 33% |
| Published | 39% | 24% | 37% |
| Edge | -4% | 0% | +4% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.25, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
San Diego vs Seattle Sounders odds movement
Median bookmaker price on San Diego, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego | 2.13 | 2.18 | +0.05 |
| Draw | 3.83 | 3.90 | +0.07 |
| Seattle Sounders | 2.85 | 2.88 | +0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
San Diego and Seattle Sounders expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.42
- Attack rating (San Diego / Seattle Sounders)
- 1.13 / 1.01
- Defence rating (San Diego / Seattle Sounders)
- 1.41 / 0.75
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
San Diego vs Seattle Sounders score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: San Diego goals. Columns: Seattle Sounders goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
San Diego vs Seattle Sounders goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for San Diego vs Seattle Sounders
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | San Diego | 39% | 2.54 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.16 | |
| Seattle Sounders | 37% | 2.73 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.98 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.49 |
| No | 33% | 3.03 | |
| Double chance | 1X (San Diego or draw) | 63% | 1.58 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Seattle Sounders) | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Handicap -1 | San Diego win by 2+ | 13% | 7.67 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
San Diego and Seattle Sounders recent form
San Diego
0W 4D 2L
Seattle Sounders
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
San Diego at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-4-5
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 15
- They have won 8 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 9 of 10 penalties (90%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Seattle Sounders away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-5-6
- Win rate
- 27%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.07
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 15
- They have won 11 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: San Diego at home only, Seattle Sounders away only.
Injuries & availability
San Diego absences
- O. Soe lower-body injury
Seattle Sounders absences
- A. Roldan calf injury
-
N. Petkovic
knee injury
-
P. Rothrock
hamstring injury
-
P. de La Vega
calf injury
- S. Hawkins hamstring injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
San Diego vs Seattle Sounders head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: San Diego 1 · draws 1 · Seattle Sounders 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Seattle Sounders | 1-1 | San Diego | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-05-29 | Seattle Sounders | 1-0 | San Diego | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-04-06 | San Diego | 3-0 | Seattle Sounders | Major League Soccer |
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
- Orlando City SC v New York City FC — match page 2026-10-24
- Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United FC 2026-10-25
- Sporting Kansas City vs Austin 2026-10-25
- Real Salt Lake v St. Louis City — match page 2026-10-25
- Colorado Rapids vs Vancouver Whitecaps — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Portland Timbers v Charlotte — match page 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- San Diego, previous: Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Diego: odds and pick
- San Diego, next: Vancouver Whitecaps v San Diego analysis
- Seattle Sounders, previous: Seattle Sounders – CF Montreal, 2026-10-18
- Seattle Sounders, next: Seattle Sounders vs Houston Dynamo prediction