Chirundu Utd vs Kabwe Warriors preview
In the upcoming match between Chirundu Utd and Kabwe Warriors, the 1X2 probabilities show Chirundu Utd at 36%, a draw also at 36%, and Kabwe Warriors at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 0-0, with an 18% chance according to our model.
Chirundu Utd has an expected goals figure of 0.95, while Kabwe Warriors is lower at 0.82. The chances for Over 2.5 goals stand at 26%, and both teams to score is at 36%. Recent form indicates Chirundu Utd lost their last match, while Kabwe Warriors has drawn once and lost three of their last five games. This context could influence the outcome and the expected performance of both teams.
Chirundu Utd vs Kabwe Warriors: model vs market
| Source | Chirundu Utd | Draw | Kabwe Warriors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36% | 36% | 29% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 36% | 36% | 29% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Chirundu Utd and Kabwe Warriors expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.78
- Attack rating (Chirundu Utd / Kabwe Warriors)
- 0.83 / 0.95
- Defence rating (Chirundu Utd / Kabwe Warriors)
- 1.21 / 1.09
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Chirundu Utd vs Kabwe Warriors score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Chirundu Utd goals. Columns: Kabwe Warriors goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Chirundu Utd vs Kabwe Warriors goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 36%
- No goals (0–0)
- 18%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Chirundu Utd vs Kabwe Warriors
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chirundu Utd | 36% | 2.81 |
| Draw | 36% | 2.80 | |
| Kabwe Warriors | 29% | 3.49 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 26% | 3.80 |
| Under 2.5 | 74% | 1.36 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 36% | 2.79 |
| No | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Chirundu Utd or draw) | 71% | 1.40 |
| 12 (either side) | 64% | 1.56 | |
| X2 (draw or Kabwe Warriors) | 64% | 1.55 | |
| Handicap -1 | Chirundu Utd win by 2+ | 14% | 7.34 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Chirundu Utd and Kabwe Warriors recent form
Chirundu Utd
0W 0D 1L
Kabwe Warriors
1W 3D 2L
Last 1 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
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Before and after this match
- Chirundu Utd, previous: Nkwazi v Chirundu Utd analysis
- Kabwe Warriors, previous: Kabwe Warriors vs Mutondo Stars: odds and pick