Mutondo Stars vs Green Buffaloes Prediction & Betting Tips 15/10/2026

Mutondo Stars vs Green Buffaloes preview

In the Zambia Super League fixture between Mutondo Stars and Green Buffaloes, the 1X2 probabilities show Mutondo Stars at 41%, while Green Buffaloes sit at 24%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, with a 16% chance. Mutondo Stars have an expected goals figure of 1.05 compared to Green Buffaloes' 0.75, indicating a stronger attacking potential.

However, the recent form may complicate the outcome. Mutondo Stars have recorded two losses in their last three matches, while Green Buffaloes have won three of their last six. Additionally, the chances for Over 2.5 goals stand at just 27%, and both teams to score is at 36%, suggesting a low-scoring match is more likely.

Mutondo Stars vs Green Buffaloes: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Mutondo Stars	Draw	Green Buffaloes
Model	41%	35%	24%
Market	—	—	—
Published	41%	35%	24%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.05 vs 0.75.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Mutondo Stars and Green Buffaloes expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.05Mutondo Stars

0.75Green Buffaloes

Total expected goals: 1.80
Attack rating (Mutondo Stars / Green Buffaloes): 1.08 / 0.80
Defence rating (Mutondo Stars / Green Buffaloes): 1.31 / 0.93

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Mutondo Stars vs Green Buffaloes score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 17.8% 11.0% 4.6% 1.1% 0.2% 1 16.1% 14.3% 4.8% 1.2% 0.3% 2 9.2% 6.9% 2.6% 0.6% 0.1% 3 3.2% 2.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 4+ 1.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Mutondo Stars goals. Columns: Green Buffaloes goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Mutondo Stars vs Green Buffaloes goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 82%

Over 1.5 55%

Over 2.5 27%

Over 3.5 11%

Both teams to score: 36%
No goals (0–0): 18%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Mutondo Stars vs Green Buffaloes

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Mutondo Stars	41%	2.44
	Draw	35%	2.86
	Green Buffaloes	24%	4.14
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	27%	3.71
	Under 2.5	73%	1.37
Both teams to score	Yes	36%	2.81
	No	64%	1.55
Double chance	1X (Mutondo Stars or draw)	76%	1.32
	12 (either side)	65%	1.54
	X2 (draw or Green Buffaloes)	59%	1.69
Handicap -1	Mutondo Stars win by 2+	17%	5.88
	Push (exactly one goal)	24%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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