Updated

Algeria Ligue 1 · Matchday 11Postponed

USM Alger vs MC Alger

Alin prediction MC Alger to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 0 – 1

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
USM AlgerDrawMC Alger
  • RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.

USM Alger vs MC Alger: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceUSM AlgerDrawMC Alger
Model30%32%38%
Market———
Published30%32%38%
Edge———

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

USM Alger and MC Alger expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.98USM Alger
1.06MC Alger
Total expected goals
2.04
Attack rating (USM Alger / MC Alger)
1.24 / 1.30
Defence rating (USM Alger / MC Alger)
0.91 / 0.59

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

USM Alger vs MC Alger score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 14.4% 12.5% 7.3% 2.6% 0.9% 1 11.4% 14.9% 7.2% 2.5% 0.8% 2 6.2% 6.6% 3.5% 1.2% 0.4% 3 2.0% 2.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: USM Alger goals. Columns: MC Alger goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

USM Alger vs MC Alger goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 86%
Over 1.5 62%
Over 2.5 33%
Over 3.5 15%
Both teams to score
44%
No goals (0–0)
14%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for USM Alger vs MC Alger

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2USM Alger30%3.36
Draw32%3.11
MC Alger38%2.63
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.536%2.77
Under 2.564%1.56
Both teams to scoreYes44%2.26
No56%1.79
Double chance1X (USM Alger or draw)62%1.61
12 (either side)68%1.47
X2 (draw or MC Alger)70%1.42
Handicap -1MC Alger win by 2+15%6.83
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

USM Alger and MC Alger recent form

USM Alger 4W 1D 1L
MC Alger 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

USM Alger at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-0
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
1.67
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
2 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

MC Alger away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
1 of 2
  • They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
  • 54% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: USM Alger at home only, MC Alger away only.

USM Alger vs MC Alger head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: USM Alger 0 · draws 1 · MC Alger 1.

USM AlgerDrawsMC Alger
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-01MC Alger1-0USM AlgerAlgeria Ligue 1
2025-08-31USM Alger0-0MC AlgerAlgeria Ligue 1

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match