Updated

Algeria Ligue 1 · Matchday 11Postponed

CR Belouizdad vs CS Constantine

Alin prediction CR Belouizdad to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 3 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
CR BelouizdadDrawCS Constantine
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.09 vs 0.88.
  • RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.

CR Belouizdad vs CS Constantine: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCR BelouizdadDrawCS Constantine
Model78%14%9%
Market———
Published78%14%9%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.09 vs 0.88.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

CR Belouizdad and CS Constantine expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

3.09CR Belouizdad
0.88CS Constantine
Total expected goals
3.97
Attack rating (CR Belouizdad / CS Constantine)
1.32 / 1.12
Defence rating (CR Belouizdad / CS Constantine)
0.87 / 1.74

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

CR Belouizdad vs CS Constantine score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.4% 1.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 1 5.3% 5.6% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2% 2 9.0% 7.9% 3.5% 1.0% 0.3% 3 9.3% 8.2% 3.6% 1.0% 0.3% 4+ 15.5% 13.6% 6.0% 1.7% 0.5%

Rows: CR Belouizdad goals. Columns: CS Constantine goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

CR Belouizdad vs CS Constantine goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 91%
Over 2.5 76%
Over 3.5 56%
Both teams to score
62%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for CR Belouizdad vs CS Constantine

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2CR Belouizdad78%1.28
Draw14%7.35
CS Constantine9%11.71
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.578%1.28
Under 2.522%4.53
Both teams to scoreYes62%1.62
No38%2.61
Double chance1X (CR Belouizdad or draw)91%1.09
12 (either side)86%1.16
X2 (draw or CS Constantine)22%4.52
Handicap -1CR Belouizdad win by 2+63%1.60
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

CR Belouizdad and CS Constantine recent form

CR Belouizdad 5W 1D 0L
CS Constantine 1W 0D 5L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

CR Belouizdad at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
3 of 3
  • They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
  • 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

CS Constantine away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.50
Goals against / match
2.75
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.

League matches this season before kick-off: CR Belouizdad at home only, CS Constantine away only.

CR Belouizdad vs CS Constantine head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: CR Belouizdad 0 · draws 2 · CS Constantine 0.

CR BelouizdadDrawsCS Constantine
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-26CS Constantine0-0CR BelouizdadAlgeria Ligue 1
2025-09-28CR Belouizdad2-2CS ConstantineAlgeria Ligue 1

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match