Central Norte vs Acassuso preview
In the match between Central Norte and Acassuso, the 1X2 probabilities show Central Norte at 38%, a draw at 40%, and Acassuso at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 0-0, with a 25% chance according to our model. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Central Norte's last five matches resulting in 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss, while Acassuso has 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss.
The expected goals are 0.85 for Central Norte and 0.59 for Acassuso, indicating a low-scoring affair is likely. With only an 18% chance for Over 2.5 goals and 27% for both teams to score, the match could easily deviate from these projections, especially if one team finds their attacking rhythm.
Central Norte vs Acassuso: model vs market
| Source | Central Norte | Draw | Acassuso |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38% | 40% | 23% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 38% | 40% | 23% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Central Norte and Acassuso expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.44
- Attack rating (Central Norte / Acassuso)
- 0.89 / 0.91
- Defence rating (Central Norte / Acassuso)
- 0.90 / 0.83
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Central Norte vs Acassuso score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Central Norte goals. Columns: Acassuso goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Central Norte vs Acassuso goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 27%
- No goals (0–0)
- 25%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Central Norte vs Acassuso
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Central Norte | 38% | 2.64 |
| Draw | 40% | 2.53 | |
| Acassuso | 23% | 4.42 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 18% | 5.68 |
| Under 2.5 | 82% | 1.21 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 27% | 3.74 |
| No | 73% | 1.36 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Central Norte or draw) | 77% | 1.29 |
| 12 (either side) | 60% | 1.65 | |
| X2 (draw or Acassuso) | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Handicap -1 | Central Norte win by 2+ | 13% | 7.45 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Central Norte and Acassuso recent form
Central Norte
1W 4D 1L
Acassuso
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Central Norte at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-10-3
- Win rate
- 24%
- Goals for / match
- 0.71
- Goals against / match
- 0.65
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 17
- They have won 6 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 16 of 33 matches.
Acassuso away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-5-9
- Win rate
- 18%
- Goals for / match
- 0.71
- Goals against / match
- 1.18
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 17
- They have won 8 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 18 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Central Norte at home only, Acassuso away only.
Central Norte vs Acassuso head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Central Norte 0 · draws 0 · Acassuso 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | Acassuso | 2-1 | Central Norte | Primera Nacional |
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Before and after this match
- Central Norte, previous: Chaco For Ever v Central Norte analysis
- Acassuso, previous: Acassuso vs Deportivo Madryn prediction