Deportivo Maipu vs Club Atlético Güemes preview
Deportivo Maipu faces Club Atlético Güemes with a 70% probability of winning according to our model. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs at a 19% chance. Deportivo Maipu has shown solid recent form with 2 wins in their last 5 matches, while Club Atlético Güemes has struggled, losing 5 of their last 6.
Despite the strong likelihood of a Deportivo Maipu victory, a draw is still a possibility at 23%. Both teams to score stands at 29%, indicating a low chance of both teams finding the net. Additionally, the expected goals suggest Deportivo Maipu will likely dominate the scoring chances with 1.77 expected goals compared to 0.42 for Club Atlético Güemes.
Deportivo Maipu vs Club Atlético Güemes: model vs market
| Source | Deportivo Maipu | Draw | Club Atlético Güemes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70% | 23% | 7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 70% | 23% | 7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 0.42.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Deportivo Maipu and Club Atlético Güemes expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.18
- Attack rating (Deportivo Maipu / Club Atlético Güemes)
- 1.00 / 0.64
- Defence rating (Deportivo Maipu / Club Atlético Güemes)
- 0.90 / 1.54
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Deportivo Maipu vs Club Atlético Güemes score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Deportivo Maipu goals. Columns: Club Atlético Güemes goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Deportivo Maipu vs Club Atlético Güemes goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 29%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Deportivo Maipu vs Club Atlético Güemes
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo Maipu | 70% | 1.43 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.38 | |
| Club Atlético Güemes | 7% | 13.87 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37% | 2.68 |
| Under 2.5 | 63% | 1.60 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 29% | 3.44 |
| No | 71% | 1.41 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Deportivo Maipu or draw) | 93% | 1.08 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Club Atlético Güemes) | 30% | 3.33 | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo Maipu win by 2+ | 43% | 2.35 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Deportivo Maipu and Club Atlético Güemes recent form
Deportivo Maipu
2W 3D 1L
Club Atlético Güemes
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Deportivo Maipu at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-5-3
- Win rate
- 53%
- Goals for / match
- 1.18
- Goals against / match
- 0.65
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 17
- They have won 13 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Club Atlético Güemes away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-5-11
- Win rate
- 6%
- Goals for / match
- 0.65
- Goals against / match
- 1.88
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 17
- They have won 5 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 33 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Deportivo Maipu at home only, Club Atlético Güemes away only.
Deportivo Maipu vs Club Atlético Güemes head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Deportivo Maipu 0 · draws 2 · Club Atlético Güemes 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-07 | Club Atlético Güemes | 1-0 | Deportivo Maipu | Primera Nacional |
| 2025-07-27 | Deportivo Maipu | 1-1 | Club Atlético Güemes | Primera Nacional |
| 2025-03-23 | Club Atlético Güemes | 1-1 | Deportivo Maipu | Primera Nacional |
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
- CA Estudiantes v Los Andes — match page 2026-10-25
- Patronato vs Agropecuario 2026-10-25
- Temperley v Chacarita Juniors — match page 2026-10-25
- Gimnasia Jujuy v Atlanta — match page 2026-10-25
- Atletico Mitre vs Godoy Cruz — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Central Norte vs Acassuso — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Midland vs Gimnasia Y Tiro — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Racing Cordoba v All Boys — match page 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Deportivo Maipu, previous: Chacarita Juniors v Deportivo Maipu analysis
- Club Atlético Güemes, previous: Club Atlético Güemes – Almagro, 2026-10-18