Midland vs Gimnasia Y Tiro preview
Midland faces Gimnasia Y Tiro with a 47% chance of winning compared to 25% for Gimnasia Y Tiro. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which reflects Midland's expected goals of 1.53 against Gimnasia Y Tiro's 1.06.
However, both teams to score stands at 53%, indicating potential for goals from both sides. Recent form shows Midland winning 3 of their last 5 matches, while Gimnasia Y Tiro has only managed 2 wins in the same span. This could impact the outcome, as Midland's form may not guarantee a win against a team that has previously beaten them.
Midland vs Gimnasia Y Tiro: model vs market
| Source | Midland | Draw | Gimnasia Y Tiro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 28% | 25% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 47% | 28% | 25% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.53 vs 1.06.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Midland and Gimnasia Y Tiro expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.59
- Attack rating (Midland / Gimnasia Y Tiro)
- 1.45 / 1.30
- Defence rating (Midland / Gimnasia Y Tiro)
- 1.14 / 0.92
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Midland vs Gimnasia Y Tiro score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Midland goals. Columns: Gimnasia Y Tiro goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Midland vs Gimnasia Y Tiro goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Midland vs Gimnasia Y Tiro
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Midland | 47% | 2.14 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.57 | |
| Gimnasia Y Tiro | 25% | 3.98 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.08 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.90 |
| No | 47% | 2.11 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Midland or draw) | 75% | 1.34 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Gimnasia Y Tiro) | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Handicap -1 | Midland win by 2+ | 24% | 4.10 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Midland and Gimnasia Y Tiro recent form
Midland
3W 1D 2L
Gimnasia Y Tiro
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Midland at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 11-3-3
- Win rate
- 65%
- Goals for / match
- 1.35
- Goals against / match
- 0.41
- Clean sheets
- 11 of 17
- They have won 14 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 15 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gimnasia Y Tiro away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-4-8
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.24
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 17
- They have won 13 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Midland at home only, Gimnasia Y Tiro away only.
Midland vs Gimnasia Y Tiro head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Midland 0 · draws 0 · Gimnasia Y Tiro 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | Gimnasia Y Tiro | 1-0 | Midland | Primera Nacional |
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
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- Patronato vs Agropecuario 2026-10-25
- Temperley v Chacarita Juniors — match page 2026-10-25
- Gimnasia Jujuy v Atlanta — match page 2026-10-25
- Atletico Mitre vs Godoy Cruz — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Central Norte vs Acassuso — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Deportivo Maipu vs Club Atlético Güemes 2026-10-25
- Racing Cordoba v All Boys — match page 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Midland, previous: San Martin Tucuman vs Midland: odds and pick
- Gimnasia Y Tiro, previous: Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Atlanta prediction