RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense-sc preview
RB Bragantino has a strong 71% chance to win against Chapecoense-sc, with a most likely scoreline of 2-0 at 12%. The expected goals for RB Bragantino is 2.22, while Chapecoense-sc sits at just 0.82. This suggests a solid advantage for the home side.
However, recent form shows RB Bragantino has drawn or lost in 4 of their last 6 matches, while Chapecoense-sc has only won once in their last 6 games. Both teams to score is at 51%, indicating that Chapecoense-sc could find the net, which might challenge the predicted outcome.
RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense-sc: model vs market
| Source | RB Bragantino | Draw | Chapecoense-sc |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 68% | 20% | 12% |
| Market | 72% | 18% | 10% |
| Published | 71% | 18% | 10% |
| Edge | -1% | +1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.22 vs 0.82.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.34, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense-sc odds movement
Median bookmaker price on RB Bragantino, 7 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB Bragantino | 1.30 | 1.30 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 5.25 | 5.25 | +0.00 |
| Chapecoense-sc | 9.50 | 9.50 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
RB Bragantino and Chapecoense-sc expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.03
- Attack rating (RB Bragantino / Chapecoense-sc)
- 0.98 / 0.74
- Defence rating (RB Bragantino / Chapecoense-sc)
- 1.04 / 1.48
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense-sc score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: RB Bragantino goals. Columns: Chapecoense-sc goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense-sc goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense-sc
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | RB Bragantino | 71% | 1.40 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.42 | |
| Chapecoense-sc | 10% | 9.71 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.40 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.98 |
| No | 49% | 2.02 | |
| Double chance | 1X (RB Bragantino or draw) | 90% | 1.11 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.23 | |
| X2 (draw or Chapecoense-sc) | 29% | 3.48 | |
| Handicap -1 | RB Bragantino win by 2+ | 45% | 2.20 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
RB Bragantino and Chapecoense-sc recent form
RB Bragantino
1W 3D 2L
Chapecoense-sc
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
RB Bragantino at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-3-5
- Win rate
- 47%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.13
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 15
- They have won 11 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 5 penalties (40%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Chapecoense-sc away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-4-11
- Win rate
- 6%
- Goals for / match
- 0.69
- Goals against / match
- 1.81
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 16
- They have won 3 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
League matches this season before kick-off: RB Bragantino at home only, Chapecoense-sc away only.
RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense-sc head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: RB Bragantino 1 · draws 0 · Chapecoense-sc 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Chapecoense-sc | 1-2 | RB Bragantino | Brazil Serie A |
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
- Fluminense vs Internacional 2026-10-28
- Santos v Palmeiras — match page 2026-10-28
- Bahia vs Sao Paulo — team news & stats 2026-10-29
- Remo vs Botafogo — team news & stats 2026-10-29
- Coritiba vs Vitoria — team news & stats 2026-10-29
- Atletico-MG v Cruzeiro — match page 2026-10-29
- Vasco DA Gama v Flamengo — match page 2026-10-29
- Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense — team news & stats 2026-10-30
Before and after this match
- RB Bragantino, previous: Palmeiras v RB Bragantino analysis
- Chapecoense-sc, previous: Chapecoense-sc – Fluminense, 2026-10-24