Updated

Brazil Serie A · Matchday 33

Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro

· MRV Arena, Belo Horizonte

Alin prediction Atletico-MG to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Atletico-MGDrawCruzeiro
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.05 vs 1.34.
  • RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Best market odds
Atletico-MG2.48 Draw3.50 Cruzeiro2.87

Price as of

Expected return at 2.48: +5.3% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 8 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro preview

Atletico-MG faces Cruzeiro with a 42% chance of winning compared to Cruzeiro's 31%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which reflects Atletico-MG's expected goals of 2.05 against Cruzeiro's 1.34. Both teams to score stands at 65%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 66%, indicating a strong potential for a high-scoring match.

Atletico-MG's recent form shows 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 6 matches, while Cruzeiro has 3 wins and 3 losses in the same period. However, the confidence grade is C, suggesting uncertainty in the outcome. If Atletico-MG's form dips or if Cruzeiro improves their performance, the predictions could shift.

Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAtletico-MGDrawCruzeiro
Model53%23%24%
Market39%28%33%
Published42%27%31%
Edge+4%-1%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.05 vs 1.34.
  • The market prices Atletico-MG below our published probability: +3.5 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.48, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +5.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Atletico-MG, 7 snapshots since 2026-10-20.

Opened 2.40Now 2.40 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Atletico-MG2.402.40+0.00
Draw3.403.37-0.03
Cruzeiro2.802.80+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Atletico-MG and Cruzeiro expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.05Atletico-MG
1.34Cruzeiro
Total expected goals
3.39
Attack rating (Atletico-MG / Cruzeiro)
1.12 / 1.47
Defence rating (Atletico-MG / Cruzeiro)
0.85 / 1.21

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.3% 3.6% 3.0% 1.3% 0.6% 1 6.0% 10.2% 6.2% 2.8% 1.2% 2 7.1% 9.5% 6.3% 2.8% 1.3% 3 4.9% 6.5% 4.3% 1.9% 0.9% 4+ 4.0% 5.4% 3.6% 1.6% 0.7%

Rows: Atletico-MG goals. Columns: Cruzeiro goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 86%
Over 2.5 66%
Over 3.5 44%
Both teams to score
65%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Atletico-MG42%2.35
Draw27%3.76
Cruzeiro31%3.23
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.566%1.52
Under 2.534%2.93
Both teams to scoreYes65%1.53
No35%2.87
Double chance1X (Atletico-MG or draw)69%1.45
12 (either side)73%1.36
X2 (draw or Cruzeiro)58%1.74
Handicap -1Atletico-MG win by 2+32%3.11
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Atletico-MG and Cruzeiro recent form

Atletico-MG 4W 1D 1L
Cruzeiro 4W 0D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Atletico-MG at home

Record (W-D-L)
10-5-1
Win rate
62%
Goals for / match
1.69
Goals against / match
1.06
Clean sheets
5 of 16
  • They have won 13 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Cruzeiro away

Record (W-D-L)
7-2-7
Win rate
44%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
1.88
Clean sheets
2 of 16
  • They have won 15 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Atletico-MG at home only, Cruzeiro away only.

Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Atletico-MG 4 · draws 3 · Cruzeiro 3.

Atletico-MGDrawsCruzeiro
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-09-02Atletico-MG2-1CruzeiroCopa Do Brasil
2026-08-26Cruzeiro1-1Atletico-MGCopa Do Brasil
2026-05-03Cruzeiro1-3Atletico-MGBrazil Serie A
2026-03-08Cruzeiro1-0Atletico-MGMineiro - 1
2026-01-25Atletico-MG2-1CruzeiroMineiro - 1
2025-10-16Atletico-MG1-1CruzeiroBrazil Serie A
2025-09-11Cruzeiro2-0Atletico-MGCopa Do Brasil
2025-08-27Atletico-MG0-2CruzeiroCopa Do Brasil
2025-05-18Cruzeiro0-0Atletico-MGBrazil Serie A
2025-02-09Cruzeiro0-2Atletico-MGMineiro - 1

Other Matchday 33 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Atletico-MG to win Predicted score 2 – 1 C Bet on Atletico-MG
Our pick: Atletico-MG to win 18+ Bet Now