Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense preview
In the upcoming match between Gremio and Atletico Paranaense, the 1X2 probabilities show Gremio at 40%, draw at 28%, and Atletico Paranaense at 32%. The most likely scoreline according to our model is 2-1, which has a 9% chance of occurring. Gremio's recent form includes 1 win in their last 6 matches, while Atletico Paranaense has 2 wins in their last 6.
Our model predicts Over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams to score at 68%. Gremio has expected goals of 1.77, while Atletico Paranaense has 1.63. If Gremio's poor recent form continues or if Atletico Paranaense fails to capitalize on their chances, these predictions could be off.
Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense: model vs market
| Source | Gremio | Draw | Atletico Paranaense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 25% | 35% |
| Market | 40% | 29% | 32% |
| Published | 40% | 28% | 32% |
| Edge | 0% | -1% | +1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.43, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Gremio, 7 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gremio | 2.35 | 2.36 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 3.25 | 3.25 | +0.00 |
| Atletico Paranaense | 3.00 | 2.96 | -0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Gremio and Atletico Paranaense expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.40
- Attack rating (Gremio / Atletico Paranaense)
- 0.94 / 1.35
- Defence rating (Gremio / Atletico Paranaense)
- 1.13 / 1.24
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Gremio goals. Columns: Atletico Paranaense goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gremio | 40% | 2.50 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.61 | |
| Atletico Paranaense | 32% | 3.09 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.94 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.48 |
| No | 32% | 3.09 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Gremio or draw) | 68% | 1.48 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Atletico Paranaense) | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Handicap -1 | Gremio win by 2+ | 22% | 4.54 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Gremio and Atletico Paranaense recent form
Gremio
0W 3D 3L
Atletico Paranaense
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Gremio at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-5-4
- Win rate
- 44%
- Goals for / match
- 1.56
- Goals against / match
- 1.31
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 16
- They have won 7 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 30 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico Paranaense away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-3-6
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.47
- Goals against / match
- 1.47
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 15
- They have won 15 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Gremio at home only, Atletico Paranaense away only.
Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Gremio 0 · draws 1 · Atletico Paranaense 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Atletico Paranaense | 0-0 | Gremio | Brazil Serie A |
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
- Fluminense vs Internacional 2026-10-28
- Santos v Palmeiras — match page 2026-10-28
- Bahia vs Sao Paulo — team news & stats 2026-10-29
- Remo vs Botafogo — team news & stats 2026-10-29
- Coritiba vs Vitoria — team news & stats 2026-10-29
- Atletico-MG v Cruzeiro — match page 2026-10-29
- Vasco DA Gama v Flamengo — match page 2026-10-29
Before and after this match
- Gremio, previous: Coritiba – Gremio, 2026-10-26
- Gremio, next: Gremio – Atletico-MG, 2026-11-01
- Atletico Paranaense, previous: Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense prediction