Bahia vs Sao Paulo preview
In the upcoming match between Bahia and Sao Paulo, the 1X2 probabilities show Bahia at 47%, while Sao Paulo sits at 25%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of Bahia, with a 13% chance. Bahia's expected goals are 1.27, compared to Sao Paulo's 0.90, indicating a stronger attacking performance from Bahia.
However, the recent form shows Bahia with a mixed record of L-W-L-L-W-W, while Sao Paulo has been more consistent with W-W-L-L-W-D. Additionally, there is a 44% chance for both teams to score, which could challenge the predicted outcome. The confidence grade is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the prediction.
Bahia vs Sao Paulo: model vs market
| Source | Bahia | Draw | Sao Paulo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 31% | 25% |
| Market | 48% | 27% | 25% |
| Published | 47% | 28% | 25% |
| Edge | -1% | +1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.27 vs 0.90.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.01, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Bahia vs Sao Paulo odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Bahia, 7 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bahia | 1.95 | 1.95 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.46 | -0.04 |
| Sao Paulo | 3.80 | 3.75 | -0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Bahia and Sao Paulo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.17
- Attack rating (Bahia / Sao Paulo)
- 0.99 / 0.84
- Defence rating (Bahia / Sao Paulo)
- 1.00 / 0.85
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Bahia vs Sao Paulo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Bahia goals. Columns: Sao Paulo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Bahia vs Sao Paulo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Bahia vs Sao Paulo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bahia | 47% | 2.13 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.56 | |
| Sao Paulo | 25% | 4.01 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37% | 2.71 |
| Under 2.5 | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.28 |
| No | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Bahia or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Sao Paulo) | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bahia win by 2+ | 21% | 4.86 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Bahia and Sao Paulo recent form
Bahia
3W 0D 3L
Sao Paulo
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Bahia at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-6-3
- Win rate
- 44%
- Goals for / match
- 1.44
- Goals against / match
- 1.06
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 13 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 11 penalties (73%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sao Paulo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-10
- Win rate
- 13%
- Goals for / match
- 0.73
- Goals against / match
- 1.47
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 15
- They have won 11 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Bahia at home only, Sao Paulo away only.
Bahia vs Sao Paulo head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Bahia 1 · draws 1 · Sao Paulo 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Sao Paulo | 2-2 | Bahia | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-10-26 | Sao Paulo | 2-0 | Bahia | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-05-31 | Bahia | 2-1 | Sao Paulo | Brazil Serie A |
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
- Fluminense vs Internacional 2026-10-28
- Santos v Palmeiras — match page 2026-10-28
- RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense-sc 2026-10-28
- Remo vs Botafogo — team news & stats 2026-10-29
- Coritiba vs Vitoria — team news & stats 2026-10-29
- Atletico-MG v Cruzeiro — match page 2026-10-29
- Vasco DA Gama v Flamengo — match page 2026-10-29
- Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense — team news & stats 2026-10-30
Before and after this match
- Bahia, previous: Santos vs Bahia prediction
- Sao Paulo, previous: Mirassol v Sao Paulo analysis