Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo preview
In the match between Vasco DA Gama and Flamengo, the 1X2 probabilities show Flamengo at 43% to win, compared to Vasco DA Gama's 28%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 14% chance according to our model. Flamengo's recent form includes 4 draws and 2 wins, while Vasco DA Gama has 2 losses and 3 matches without defeat.
The expected goals are close, with Vasco DA Gama at 0.88 and Flamengo at 0.92. There's a 27% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 37% chance for both teams to score. The confidence grade is C, indicating uncertainty. If Vasco DA Gama can improve their scoring, they might challenge Flamengo's recent dominance in their head-to-head encounters, which have seen 3 draws and no wins for either side.
Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo: model vs market
| Source | Vasco DA Gama | Draw | Flamengo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 36% | 33% |
| Market | 27% | 27% | 46% |
| Published | 28% | 29% | 43% |
| Edge | +1% | +2% | -3% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.10, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Flamengo, 7 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vasco DA Gama | 3.55 | 3.52 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.46 | -0.04 |
| Flamengo | 2.01 | 2.02 | +0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Vasco DA Gama and Flamengo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.80
- Attack rating (Vasco DA Gama / Flamengo)
- 1.07 / 1.14
- Defence rating (Vasco DA Gama / Flamengo)
- 0.76 / 0.54
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Vasco DA Gama goals. Columns: Flamengo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 37%
- No goals (0–0)
- 18%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vasco DA Gama | 28% | 3.61 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.43 | |
| Flamengo | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 27% | 3.71 |
| Under 2.5 | 73% | 1.37 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37% | 2.74 |
| No | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Vasco DA Gama or draw) | 57% | 1.76 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Flamengo) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| Handicap -1 | Flamengo win by 2+ | 12% | 8.00 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Vasco DA Gama and Flamengo recent form
Vasco DA Gama
3W 1D 2L
Flamengo
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Vasco DA Gama at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-3-5
- Win rate
- 47%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 15
- They have won 9 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Flamengo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-4-3
- Win rate
- 56%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.94
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 16
- They have won 19 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Vasco DA Gama at home only, Flamengo away only.
Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Vasco DA Gama 0 · draws 3 · Flamengo 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Flamengo | 2-2 | Vasco DA Gama | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-09-21 | Flamengo | 1-1 | Vasco DA Gama | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-04-19 | Vasco DA Gama | 0-0 | Flamengo | Brazil Serie A |
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
- Fluminense vs Internacional 2026-10-28
- Santos v Palmeiras — match page 2026-10-28
- Bahia vs Sao Paulo — team news & stats 2026-10-29
- Remo vs Botafogo — team news & stats 2026-10-29
- Coritiba vs Vitoria — team news & stats 2026-10-29
- Atletico-MG v Cruzeiro — match page 2026-10-29
- Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense — team news & stats 2026-10-30
Before and after this match
- Vasco DA Gama, previous: Vasco DA Gama v Corinthians analysis
- Vasco DA Gama, next: Palmeiras – Vasco DA Gama, 2026-11-01
- Flamengo, previous: Flamengo vs Atletico-MG: odds and pick