Fluminense vs Internacional preview
In the match between Fluminense and Internacional, the 1X2 probabilities show Fluminense at 50%, draw at 27%, and Internacional at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 12% chance according to our model. Fluminense has an expected goals figure of 1.82, while Internacional sits at 0.82.
Fluminense's recent form includes 3 wins and 3 losses, while Internacional has 2 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses. The model suggests a 49% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance for both teams to score. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty, which could affect the expected outcomes.
Fluminense vs Internacional: model vs market
| Source | Fluminense | Draw | Internacional |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60% | 25% | 15% |
| Market | 47% | 28% | 25% |
| Published | 50% | 27% | 23% |
| Edge | +3% | -1% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 0.82.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Fluminense below our published probability: +3.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.06, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Fluminense vs Internacional odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Fluminense, 7 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fluminense | 1.98 | 2.00 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.31 | -0.09 |
| Internacional | 3.84 | 3.73 | -0.11 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Fluminense and Internacional expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.64
- Attack rating (Fluminense / Internacional)
- 1.13 / 0.82
- Defence rating (Fluminense / Internacional)
- 0.94 / 1.06
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Fluminense vs Internacional score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Fluminense goals. Columns: Internacional goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Fluminense vs Internacional goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Fluminense vs Internacional
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fluminense | 50% | 2.00 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.66 | |
| Internacional | 23% | 4.42 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.03 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.08 |
| No | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Fluminense or draw) | 77% | 1.29 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Internacional) | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Handicap -1 | Fluminense win by 2+ | 36% | 2.80 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Fluminense and Internacional recent form
Fluminense
3W 0D 3L
Internacional
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Fluminense at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 11-3-2
- Win rate
- 69%
- Goals for / match
- 1.81
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 14 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 30 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Internacional away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-6-7
- Win rate
- 19%
- Goals for / match
- 0.94
- Goals against / match
- 1.44
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 16
- They have won 7 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Fluminense at home only, Internacional away only.
Fluminense vs Internacional head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Fluminense 3 · draws 1 · Internacional 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Internacional | 2-0 | Fluminense | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-10-25 | Fluminense | 1-0 | Internacional | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-08-07 | Fluminense | 1-1 | Internacional | Copa Do Brasil |
| 2025-07-31 | Internacional | 1-2 | Fluminense | Copa Do Brasil |
| 2025-06-01 | Internacional | 0-2 | Fluminense | Brazil Serie A |
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
- Santos v Palmeiras — match page 2026-10-28
- RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense-sc 2026-10-28
- Bahia vs Sao Paulo — team news & stats 2026-10-29
- Remo vs Botafogo — team news & stats 2026-10-29
- Coritiba vs Vitoria — team news & stats 2026-10-29
- Atletico-MG v Cruzeiro — match page 2026-10-29
- Vasco DA Gama v Flamengo — match page 2026-10-29
- Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense — team news & stats 2026-10-30
Before and after this match
- Fluminense, previous: Chapecoense-sc – Fluminense, 2026-10-24
- Internacional, previous: Internacional – Botafogo, 2026-10-24