Santos vs Palmeiras preview
Santos faces Palmeiras with 31% chances to win compared to Palmeiras' 40%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring 11% of the time according to our model. Santos has an expected goals figure of 1.09, while Palmeiras stands at 1.23, indicating a slight edge for the visitors.
Both teams to score sits at 48%, suggesting a close match where either side could find the net. However, Santos' recent form shows 3 wins in their last 6 matches, which could impact their performance. Palmeiras, on the other hand, has won 4 of their last 6, indicating strong momentum. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting uncertainty in the outcome.
Santos vs Palmeiras: model vs market
| Source | Santos | Draw | Palmeiras |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 31% | 38% |
| Market | 31% | 28% | 40% |
| Published | 31% | 29% | 40% |
| Edge | 0% | +1% | -1% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.40, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Santos vs Palmeiras odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Palmeiras, 7 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Santos | 2.99 | 3.00 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.35 | 3.31 | -0.04 |
| Palmeiras | 2.35 | 2.34 | -0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Santos and Palmeiras expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.32
- Attack rating (Santos / Palmeiras)
- 1.21 / 1.12
- Defence rating (Santos / Palmeiras)
- 1.04 / 0.59
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Santos vs Palmeiras score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Santos goals. Columns: Palmeiras goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Santos vs Palmeiras goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Santos vs Palmeiras
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Santos | 31% | 3.19 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.45 | |
| Palmeiras | 40% | 2.52 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41% | 2.44 |
| Under 2.5 | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.07 |
| No | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Santos or draw) | 60% | 1.66 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Palmeiras) | 69% | 1.46 | |
| Handicap -1 | Palmeiras win by 2+ | 17% | 5.84 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Santos and Palmeiras recent form
Santos
3W 1D 2L
Palmeiras
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Santos at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-5-4
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.47
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 15
- They have won 11 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Palmeiras away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-6-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.62
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 16
- They have won 18 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Santos at home only, Palmeiras away only.
Santos vs Palmeiras head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Santos 2 · draws 2 · Palmeiras 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Santos | 0-0 | Palmeiras | Copa Do Brasil |
| 2026-08-27 | Palmeiras | 3-0 | Santos | Copa Do Brasil |
| 2026-05-02 | Palmeiras | 1-1 | Santos | Brazil Serie A |
| 2026-01-14 | Palmeiras | 1-0 | Santos | Paulista - A1 |
| 2025-11-16 | Santos | 1-0 | Palmeiras | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-11-07 | Palmeiras | 2-0 | Santos | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-01-23 | Santos | 1-2 | Palmeiras | Paulista - A1 |
| 2024-04-07 | Palmeiras | 2-0 | Santos | Paulista - A1 |
| 2024-03-31 | Santos | 1-0 | Palmeiras | Paulista - A1 |
| 2024-01-28 | Palmeiras | 2-1 | Santos | Paulista - A1 |
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
- Fluminense vs Internacional 2026-10-28
- RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense-sc 2026-10-28
- Bahia vs Sao Paulo — team news & stats 2026-10-29
- Remo vs Botafogo — team news & stats 2026-10-29
- Coritiba vs Vitoria — team news & stats 2026-10-29
- Atletico-MG v Cruzeiro — match page 2026-10-29
- Vasco DA Gama v Flamengo — match page 2026-10-29
- Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense — team news & stats 2026-10-30
Before and after this match
- Santos, previous: Santos vs Bahia prediction
- Palmeiras, previous: Palmeiras v RB Bragantino analysis
- Palmeiras, next: Palmeiras – Vasco DA Gama, 2026-11-01