Updated

FNL · Matchday 11

Kladno vs Arsenal Česká Lípa

· Stadion Frantiska Kloze, Kladno· Referee P. Orel

Full time2 – 3

Alin prediction was Kladno to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
KladnoDrawArsenal Česká Lípa

Kladno vs Arsenal Česká Lípa: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceKladnoDrawArsenal Česká Lípa
Model56%25%20%
Market50%25%24%
Published52%25%23%
Edge+5%-1%-5%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 1.03.
  • The market prices Kladno below the model: +5.5 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Kladno vs Arsenal Česká Lípa odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Kladno, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-14.

Opened 1.85Now 1.79 -0.06
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Kladno1.851.79-0.06
Draw3.483.58+0.10
Arsenal Česká Lípa3.633.71+0.08

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Kladno and Arsenal Česká Lípa expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.87Kladno
1.03Arsenal Česká Lípa
Total expected goals
2.90
Attack rating (Kladno / Arsenal Česká Lípa)
1.04 / 0.83
Defence rating (Kladno / Arsenal Česká Lípa)
1.01 / 1.16

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Kladno vs Arsenal Česká Lípa score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.5% 4.6% 2.9% 1.0% 0.3% 1 9.2% 11.7% 5.5% 1.9% 0.6% 2 9.6% 9.9% 5.1% 1.8% 0.6% 3 6.0% 6.2% 3.2% 1.1% 0.4% 4+ 4.3% 4.4% 2.3% 0.8% 0.3%

Rows: Kladno goals. Columns: Arsenal Česká Lípa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Kladno vs Arsenal Česká Lípa goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 80%
Over 2.5 55%
Over 3.5 33%
Both teams to score
56%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Kladno vs Arsenal Česká Lípa

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Kladno52%1.93
Draw25%3.99
Arsenal Česká Lípa23%4.32
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.556%1.80
Under 2.544%2.25
Both teams to scoreYes56%1.80
No44%2.25
Double chance1X (Kladno or draw)77%1.30
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Arsenal Česká Lípa)48%2.07
Handicap -1Kladno win by 2+33%3.03
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Kladno and Arsenal Česká Lípa recent form

Kladno 2W 2D 2L
Arsenal Česká Lípa 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Kladno at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.75
Goals against / match
0.75
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Arsenal Česká Lípa away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-3
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.80
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Kladno at home only, Arsenal Česká Lípa away only.

Kladno vs Arsenal Česká Lípa head-to-head

Last 9 meetings: Kladno 4 · draws 2 · Arsenal Česká Lípa 3.

KladnoDrawsArsenal Česká Lípa
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-06-13Arsenal Česká Lípa2-3Kladno3. liga - Promotion Play-off
2026-06-10Kladno0-2Arsenal Česká Lípa3. liga - Promotion Play-off
2025-05-24Kladno2-0Arsenal Česká Lípa3. liga - CFL B
2024-10-26Arsenal Česká Lípa0-1Kladno3. liga - CFL B
2023-04-29Kladno2-1Arsenal Česká Lípa4. liga - Divizie B
2022-10-01Arsenal Česká Lípa1-0Kladno4. liga - Divizie B
2022-04-09Arsenal Česká Lípa1-1Kladno4. liga - Divizie B
2021-08-28Kladno1-8Arsenal Česká Lípa4. liga - Divizie B
2020-09-19Kladno2-2Arsenal Česká Lípa4. liga - Divizie B

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match