Alvechurch vs Spalding United preview
In the FA Cup fixture between Alvechurch and Spalding United, the 1X2 probabilities show Alvechurch at 35%, Spalding United at 38%, and a draw at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with an 8% chance. Alvechurch has expected goals of 1.56, while Spalding United has 1.35, suggesting a competitive match.
Both teams to score stands at 60%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 56%. Alvechurch's recent form shows 3 wins and 1 loss in their last 5 matches, while Spalding United has 3 wins and 2 draws. A potential upset could occur if Spalding United's recent success against Alvechurch continues, as they have won 3 of their last 6 encounters.
Alvechurch vs Spalding United: model vs market
| Source | Alvechurch | Draw | Spalding United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 27% | 32% |
| Market | 32% | 27% | 41% |
| Published | 35% | 27% | 39% |
| Edge | +9% | 0% | -9% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.26, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Alvechurch vs Spalding United odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Spalding United, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alvechurch | 2.71 | 2.80 | +0.09 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.41 | +0.01 |
| Spalding United | 2.22 | 2.20 | -0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Alvechurch and Spalding United expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.91
- Attack rating (Alvechurch / Spalding United)
- 1.22 / 1.04
- Defence rating (Alvechurch / Spalding United)
- 0.88 / 0.71
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Alvechurch vs Spalding United score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Alvechurch goals. Columns: Spalding United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Alvechurch vs Spalding United goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Alvechurch vs Spalding United
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alvechurch | 35% | 2.89 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.76 | |
| Spalding United | 39% | 2.58 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.68 |
| No | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Alvechurch or draw) | 61% | 1.63 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Spalding United) | 65% | 1.53 | |
| Handicap -1 | Spalding United win by 2+ | 15% | 6.85 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Alvechurch and Spalding United recent form
Alvechurch
4W 1D 1L
Spalding United
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Alvechurch at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
Spalding United away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Alvechurch at home only, Spalding United away only.
Alvechurch vs Spalding United head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Alvechurch 1 · draws 2 · Spalding United 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | Spalding United | 2-2 | Alvechurch | England FA Cup |
| 2026-02-14 | Spalding United | 3-0 | Alvechurch | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| 2025-11-01 | Alvechurch | 0-2 | Spalding United | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| 2025-04-12 | Spalding United | 0-0 | Alvechurch | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| 2024-12-14 | Alvechurch | 0-1 | Spalding United | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| 2024-10-05 | Spalding United | 1-2 | Alvechurch | FA Trophy |
Other 4th Round Qualifying fixtures
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- Harrogate Town vs Bury — team news & stats 2026-10-20
- Cray Wanderers v Bedford Town — match page 2026-10-20
- Stafford Rangers vs Gateshead — team news & stats 2026-10-20
- United of Manchester vs Altrincham 2026-10-20
- Gloucester City v Barrow — match page 2026-10-20
- Anstey Nomads vs Macclesfield — team news & stats 2026-10-20
Before and after this match
- Alvechurch, previous: Spalding United vs Alvechurch prediction
- Spalding United, previous: Spalding United vs Alvechurch prediction