Stafford Rangers vs Gateshead preview
In the FA Cup match between Stafford Rangers and Gateshead, the 1X2 probabilities show Stafford Rangers at 46%, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 at 11%. Gateshead has a 25% chance of winning and has not won in their last encounter against Stafford Rangers, which ended in a draw.
While Stafford Rangers has an expected goals figure of 1.45 compared to Gateshead's 1.00, the possibility of both teams to score stands at 50%. The recent form indicates Stafford Rangers has a slight edge with D-W-D-W-W-L, while Gateshead's form is D-L-W-W-L-D. However, a draw or an unexpected performance from Gateshead could challenge the predicted outcome.
Stafford Rangers vs Gateshead: model vs market
| Source | Stafford Rangers | Draw | Gateshead |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 29% | 25% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 46% | 29% | 25% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.45 vs 1.00.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Stafford Rangers and Gateshead expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.45
- Attack rating (Stafford Rangers / Gateshead)
- 0.96 / 0.88
- Defence rating (Stafford Rangers / Gateshead)
- 0.77 / 0.83
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Stafford Rangers vs Gateshead score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Stafford Rangers goals. Columns: Gateshead goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Stafford Rangers vs Gateshead goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Stafford Rangers vs Gateshead
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stafford Rangers | 46% | 2.17 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.45 | |
| Gateshead | 25% | 4.02 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.25 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.80 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 2.01 |
| No | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Stafford Rangers or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Gateshead) | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Handicap -1 | Stafford Rangers win by 2+ | 23% | 4.28 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Stafford Rangers and Gateshead recent form
Stafford Rangers
3W 2D 1L
Gateshead
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Stafford Rangers at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Stafford Rangers at home only, Gateshead away only.
Stafford Rangers vs Gateshead head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Stafford Rangers 0 · draws 1 · Gateshead 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | Gateshead | 1-1 | Stafford Rangers | England FA Cup |
Other 4th Round Qualifying fixtures
- Yeovil Town vs Leatherhead 2026-10-20
- Forest Green v Chesham United — match page 2026-10-20
- Harrogate Town vs Bury — team news & stats 2026-10-20
- Alvechurch vs Spalding United 2026-10-20
- Cray Wanderers v Bedford Town — match page 2026-10-20
- United of Manchester vs Altrincham 2026-10-20
- Gloucester City v Barrow — match page 2026-10-20
- Anstey Nomads vs Macclesfield — team news & stats 2026-10-20
Before and after this match
- Stafford Rangers, previous: Gateshead – Stafford Rangers, 2026-10-17
- Gateshead, previous: Gateshead – Stafford Rangers, 2026-10-17