Yeovil Town vs Leatherhead Prediction & Betting Tips 20/10/2026

Yeovil Town vs Leatherhead preview

In the FA Cup fixture between Yeovil Town and Leatherhead, the 1X2 probabilities show Yeovil Town at 56% and Leatherhead at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs with a 7% chance. Yeovil Town's recent form is D-L-L, while Leatherhead has a better record with D-W-W-W-L-W.

The expected goals are 1.22 for Yeovil Town and 1.66 for Leatherhead, suggesting a competitive match. While Over 2.5 goals has a 55% chance and both teams to score sits at 58%, the outcome could change if Yeovil Town improves its form or if Leatherhead's recent winning streak influences their performance. The confidence grade for this match is C.

Yeovil Town vs Leatherhead: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Yeovil Town	Draw	Leatherhead
Model	27%	26%	47%
Market	66%	18%	16%
Published	56%	20%	24%
Edge	-39%	+8%	+30%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.49, recorded 2026-10-20 — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.

Yeovil Town vs Leatherhead odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Yeovil Town, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-20.

Opened 1.37Now 1.38 +0.01

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Yeovil Town	1.37	1.38	+0.01
Draw	4.90	4.98	+0.08
Leatherhead	5.79	5.55	-0.24

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Yeovil Town and Leatherhead expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.22Yeovil Town

1.66Leatherhead

Total expected goals: 2.88
Attack rating (Yeovil Town / Leatherhead): 0.95 / 1.02
Defence rating (Yeovil Town / Leatherhead): 1.10 / 0.71

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Yeovil Town vs Leatherhead score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.8% 8.2% 7.8% 4.3% 2.6% 1 5.7% 12.5% 9.4% 5.2% 3.1% 2 4.2% 6.9% 5.7% 3.2% 1.9% 3 1.7% 2.8% 2.3% 1.3% 0.8% 4+ 0.7% 1.1% 0.9% 0.5% 0.3%

Rows: Yeovil Town goals. Columns: Leatherhead goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Yeovil Town vs Leatherhead goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%

Over 1.5 79%

Over 2.5 55%

Over 3.5 32%

Both teams to score: 58%
No goals (0–0): 7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Yeovil Town vs Leatherhead

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Yeovil Town	56%	1.79
	Draw	20%	4.94
	Leatherhead	24%	4.19
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	55%	1.82
	Under 2.5	45%	2.21
Both teams to score	Yes	58%	1.72
	No	42%	2.39
Double chance	1X (Yeovil Town or draw)	76%	1.31
	12 (either side)	80%	1.25
	X2 (draw or Leatherhead)	44%	2.27
Handicap -1	Yeovil Town win by 2+	11%	8.71
	Push (exactly one goal)	15%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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