Harrogate Town vs Bury Prediction & Betting Tips 20/10/2026

Harrogate Town vs Bury preview

In the FA Cup match between Harrogate Town and Bury, the 1X2 probabilities show Harrogate Town at 43% and Bury at 33%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 5% chance according to our model. Harrogate's expected goals are 0.99, while Bury's are significantly higher at 1.84.

Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are both at 54%, indicating a potential for an open game. However, Harrogate's recent form of D-L-W-W-L-L could hinder their chances, while Bury's D-W-W-W-L-D suggests they might be the stronger side. The confidence grade is C, reflecting uncertainty in the outcome.

Harrogate Town vs Bury: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Harrogate Town	Draw	Bury
Model	19%	25%	56%
Market	55%	23%	22%
Published	46%	23%	30%
Edge	-36%	+2%	+34%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.73, recorded 2026-10-20 — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.

Harrogate Town vs Bury odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Harrogate Town, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-19.

Opened 1.49Now 1.65 +0.16

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Harrogate Town	1.49	1.65	+0.16
Draw	4.30	3.95	-0.35
Bury	5.29	4.15	-1.14

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Harrogate Town and Bury expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.99Harrogate Town

1.84Bury

Total expected goals: 2.83
Attack rating (Harrogate Town / Bury): 0.81 / 1.54
Defence rating (Harrogate Town / Bury): 0.81 / 0.68

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Harrogate Town vs Bury score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.0% 9.8% 10.0% 6.1% 4.3% 1 4.8% 11.8% 9.9% 6.1% 4.2% 2 2.9% 5.3% 4.9% 3.0% 2.1% 3 1.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.0% 0.7% 4+ 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2%

Rows: Harrogate Town goals. Columns: Bury goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Harrogate Town vs Bury goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%

Over 1.5 78%

Over 2.5 54%

Over 3.5 31%

Both teams to score: 54%
No goals (0–0): 7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Harrogate Town vs Bury

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Harrogate Town	46%	2.17
	Draw	23%	4.26
	Bury	30%	3.28
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	54%	1.86
	Under 2.5	46%	2.16
Both teams to score	Yes	54%	1.85
	No	46%	2.17
Double chance	1X (Harrogate Town or draw)	70%	1.44
	12 (either side)	77%	1.31
	X2 (draw or Bury)	54%	1.85
Handicap -1	Harrogate Town win by 2+	7%	14.27
	Push (exactly one goal)	12%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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