Cray Wanderers vs Bedford Town preview
In the FA Cup fixture between Cray Wanderers and Bedford Town, the 1X2 probabilities show Cray Wanderers at 41%, draw at 26%, and Bedford Town at 33%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Cray Wanderers, with a 17% chance.
Cray Wanderers have an expected goals figure of 1.43 compared to Bedford Town's 0.64. However, the match could see fewer goals than anticipated, as the probability for Over 2.5 goals is only 34%. Both teams to score stands at 37%, indicating a low likelihood of both teams finding the net. Recent form shows Cray Wanderers with a series of draws and wins, while Bedford Town has mixed results, which could affect the outcome.
Cray Wanderers vs Bedford Town: model vs market
| Source | Cray Wanderers | Draw | Bedford Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 29% | 15% |
| Market | 36% | 25% | 39% |
| Published | 41% | 26% | 33% |
| Edge | +19% | +4% | -24% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 0.64.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Cray Wanderers below the model: +19.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.70, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Cray Wanderers vs Bedford Town odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Cray Wanderers, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cray Wanderers | 2.52 | 2.52 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.62 | 3.62 | +0.00 |
| Bedford Town | 2.31 | 2.29 | -0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cray Wanderers and Bedford Town expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.07
- Attack rating (Cray Wanderers / Bedford Town)
- 0.97 / 0.84
- Defence rating (Cray Wanderers / Bedford Town)
- 0.52 / 0.82
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cray Wanderers vs Bedford Town score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cray Wanderers goals. Columns: Bedford Town goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cray Wanderers vs Bedford Town goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 37%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cray Wanderers vs Bedford Town
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cray Wanderers | 41% | 2.46 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.85 | |
| Bedford Town | 33% | 2.99 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34% | 2.91 |
| Under 2.5 | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37% | 2.69 |
| No | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cray Wanderers or draw) | 67% | 1.50 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Bedford Town) | 59% | 1.68 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cray Wanderers win by 2+ | 29% | 3.49 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Cray Wanderers and Bedford Town recent form
Cray Wanderers
3W 3D 0L
Bedford Town
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cray Wanderers at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
Bedford Town away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Cray Wanderers at home only, Bedford Town away only.
Cray Wanderers vs Bedford Town head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Cray Wanderers 0 · draws 1 · Bedford Town 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | Bedford Town | 0-0 | Cray Wanderers | England FA Cup |
Other 4th Round Qualifying fixtures
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- Alvechurch vs Spalding United 2026-10-20
- Stafford Rangers vs Gateshead — team news & stats 2026-10-20
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Before and after this match
- Cray Wanderers, previous: Bedford Town v Cray Wanderers analysis
- Bedford Town, previous: Bedford Town v Cray Wanderers analysis