Gloucester City vs Barrow preview
In the FA Cup match between Gloucester City and Barrow, the 1X2 probabilities show Barrow at 40% and Gloucester City at 36%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 4% chance according to our model. Gloucester City's expected goals are 1.90, while Barrow's are significantly lower at 0.56.
Gloucester City's recent form includes 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches, while Barrow has struggled with 1 win and 4 losses. Although there is a 45% chance for Over 2.5 goals, both teams to score has a lower probability at 37%. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Gloucester City vs Barrow: model vs market
| Source | Gloucester City | Draw | Barrow |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 69% | 22% | 9% |
| Market | 25% | 24% | 51% |
| Published | 36% | 24% | 40% |
| Edge | +44% | -2% | -42% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.85, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Gloucester City vs Barrow odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Barrow, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gloucester City | 3.63 | 3.63 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.73 | 3.75 | +0.02 |
| Barrow | 1.78 | 1.78 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Gloucester City and Barrow expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.46
- Attack rating (Gloucester City / Barrow)
- 0.96 / 0.62
- Defence rating (Gloucester City / Barrow)
- 0.61 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Gloucester City vs Barrow score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Gloucester City goals. Columns: Barrow goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Gloucester City vs Barrow goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 37%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Gloucester City vs Barrow
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gloucester City | 36% | 2.79 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.22 | |
| Barrow | 40% | 2.47 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45% | 2.24 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37% | 2.67 |
| No | 63% | 1.60 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Gloucester City or draw) | 60% | 1.68 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Barrow) | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Handicap -1 | Barrow win by 2+ | 2% | 44.20 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 7% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Gloucester City and Barrow recent form
Gloucester City
3W 2D 1L
Barrow
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Gloucester City at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Gloucester City at home only, Barrow away only.
Gloucester City vs Barrow head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Gloucester City 0 · draws 1 · Barrow 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | Barrow | 0-0 | Gloucester City | England FA Cup |
Other 4th Round Qualifying fixtures
- Yeovil Town vs Leatherhead 2026-10-20
- Forest Green v Chesham United — match page 2026-10-20
- Harrogate Town vs Bury — team news & stats 2026-10-20
- Alvechurch vs Spalding United 2026-10-20
- Cray Wanderers v Bedford Town — match page 2026-10-20
- Stafford Rangers vs Gateshead — team news & stats 2026-10-20
- United of Manchester vs Altrincham 2026-10-20
- Anstey Nomads vs Macclesfield — team news & stats 2026-10-20
Before and after this match
- Gloucester City, previous: Barrow vs Gloucester City: odds and pick
- Barrow, previous: Barrow vs Gloucester City: odds and pick