United of Manchester vs Altrincham preview
In the FA Cup fixture between United of Manchester and Altrincham, the 1X2 probabilities show United of Manchester at 37%, Altrincham at 38%, and a draw at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 5% chance. The expected goals indicate United of Manchester at 1.87 and Altrincham at 0.90, suggesting a competitive match.
Both teams to score has a probability of 51%, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 53%. Recent form shows United of Manchester with a record of D-W-W-W-L-W, while Altrincham has D-L-W-D-D-D. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
United of Manchester vs Altrincham: model vs market
| Source | United of Manchester | Draw | Altrincham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59% | 24% | 17% |
| Market | 30% | 25% | 46% |
| Published | 37% | 25% | 38% |
| Edge | +30% | -1% | -29% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.05, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
United of Manchester vs Altrincham odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Altrincham, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| United of Manchester | 3.35 | 3.06 | -0.29 |
| Draw | 3.83 | 3.65 | -0.18 |
| Altrincham | 1.86 | 1.98 | +0.11 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
United of Manchester and Altrincham expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.78
- Attack rating (United of Manchester / Altrincham)
- 1.27 / 0.93
- Defence rating (United of Manchester / Altrincham)
- 0.66 / 0.82
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
United of Manchester vs Altrincham score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: United of Manchester goals. Columns: Altrincham goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
United of Manchester vs Altrincham goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for United of Manchester vs Altrincham
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | United of Manchester | 37% | 2.71 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.06 | |
| Altrincham | 38% | 2.60 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.11 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.94 |
| No | 49% | 2.06 | |
| Double chance | 1X (United of Manchester or draw) | 62% | 1.62 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Altrincham) | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Handicap -1 | Altrincham win by 2+ | 6% | 17.35 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 11% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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United of Manchester and Altrincham recent form
United of Manchester
4W 1D 1L
Altrincham
1W 4D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
United of Manchester at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: United of Manchester at home only, Altrincham away only.
United of Manchester vs Altrincham head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: United of Manchester 2 · draws 1 · Altrincham 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | Altrincham | 0-0 | United of Manchester | England FA Cup |
| 2023-07-11 | United of Manchester | 4-1 | Altrincham | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2011-11-27 | United of Manchester | 2-1 | Altrincham | FA Trophy |
Other 4th Round Qualifying fixtures
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Before and after this match
- United of Manchester, previous: Altrincham vs United of Manchester: odds and pick
- Altrincham, previous: Altrincham vs United of Manchester: odds and pick