Forest Green vs Chesham United Prediction & Betting Tips 20/10/2026

Forest Green vs Chesham United preview

In the FA Cup fixture between Forest Green and Chesham United, the 1X2 probabilities show Forest Green at 66%, with the most likely scoreline being 2-1 at 8%. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are both at 71%. Forest Green's expected goals stand at 1.95, while Chesham United's is 1.70.

Chesham United's recent form includes 4 wins in their last 6 matches, which could challenge Forest Green, who have a mixed record with 2 wins in their last 5. Despite Forest Green's higher probability of winning, the confidence grade is only C, indicating uncertainty. This could affect the outcome, especially if Chesham United continues their winning momentum.

Forest Green vs Chesham United: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Forest Green	Draw	Chesham United
Model	43%	23%	33%
Market	77%	15%	8%
Published	69%	17%	14%
Edge	-34%	+8%	+26%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.25, recorded 2026-10-20 — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.

Forest Green vs Chesham United odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Forest Green, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-20.

Opened 1.22Now 1.17 -0.05

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Forest Green	1.22	1.17	-0.05
Draw	5.30	6.00	+0.70
Chesham United	9.70	12.00	+2.30

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Forest Green and Chesham United expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.95Forest Green

1.70Chesham United

Total expected goals: 3.64
Attack rating (Forest Green / Chesham United): 1.09 / 1.22
Defence rating (Forest Green / Chesham United): 0.94 / 0.99

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Forest Green vs Chesham United score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.5% 3.6% 3.8% 2.1% 1.3% 1 4.2% 9.5% 7.3% 4.1% 2.6% 2 5.0% 8.4% 7.1% 4.0% 2.5% 3 3.2% 5.5% 4.6% 2.6% 1.6% 4+ 2.5% 4.2% 3.5% 2.0% 1.2%

Rows: Forest Green goals. Columns: Chesham United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Forest Green vs Chesham United goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%

Over 1.5 89%

Over 2.5 71%

Over 3.5 49%

Both teams to score: 71%
No goals (0–0): 3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Forest Green vs Chesham United

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Forest Green	69%	1.45
	Draw	17%	5.83
	Chesham United	14%	7.16
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	71%	1.42
	Under 2.5	29%	3.39
Both teams to score	Yes	71%	1.41
	No	29%	3.44
Double chance	1X (Forest Green or draw)	86%	1.16
	12 (either side)	83%	1.21
	X2 (draw or Chesham United)	31%	3.21
Handicap -1	Forest Green win by 2+	25%	4.06
	Push (exactly one goal)	19%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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