Tadley Calleva vs Aldershot Town Prediction & Betting Tips 20/10/2026

Tadley Calleva vs Aldershot Town preview

In the FA Cup match between Tadley Calleva and Aldershot Town, the 1X2 probabilities show Tadley Calleva at 61%, while Aldershot Town is at 19%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance. Tadley Calleva has an expected goals figure of 2.46 compared to Aldershot Town's 1.34, suggesting a stronger attacking performance.

However, recent form could impact the outcome. Tadley Calleva has a mixed record with D-W-W-W-L-W, while Aldershot Town has struggled with D-L-W-L-W. Both teams to score stands at 68%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 73%, indicating a potential for an open game. The confidence grade is C, which suggests some uncertainty in the predictions.

Tadley Calleva vs Aldershot Town: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Tadley Calleva	Draw	Aldershot Town
Model	61%	20%	19%
Market	—	—	—
Published	61%	20%	19%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.46 vs 1.34.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Tadley Calleva and Aldershot Town expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.46Tadley Calleva

1.34Aldershot Town

Total expected goals: 3.79
Attack rating (Tadley Calleva / Aldershot Town): 1.22 / 1.05
Defence rating (Tadley Calleva / Aldershot Town): 0.86 / 1.11

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Tadley Calleva vs Aldershot Town score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.0% 2.3% 2.0% 0.9% 0.4% 1 4.8% 8.1% 4.9% 2.2% 1.0% 2 6.8% 9.1% 6.1% 2.7% 1.2% 3 5.6% 7.4% 5.0% 2.2% 1.0% 4+ 6.1% 8.2% 5.5% 2.4% 1.1%

Rows: Tadley Calleva goals. Columns: Aldershot Town goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Tadley Calleva vs Aldershot Town goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%

Over 1.5 90%

Over 2.5 73%

Over 3.5 53%

Both teams to score: 68%
No goals (0–0): 3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Tadley Calleva vs Aldershot Town

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Tadley Calleva	61%	1.63
	Draw	20%	5.02
	Aldershot Town	19%	5.33
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	73%	1.37
	Under 2.5	27%	3.70
Both teams to score	Yes	68%	1.47
	No	32%	3.14
Double chance	1X (Tadley Calleva or draw)	81%	1.23
	12 (either side)	80%	1.25
	X2 (draw or Aldershot Town)	39%	2.58
Handicap -1	Tadley Calleva win by 2+	41%	2.45
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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