Worcester City vs Chorley preview
Worcester City faces Chorley with a 38% chance of winning compared to Chorley’s 35%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with an 11% probability. Worcester City has expected goals of 1.30, while Chorley has 1.09, indicating a tighter match than the probabilities suggest.
However, both teams to score stands at 50%, which means there is a reasonable chance that both sides could find the net. Recent form shows Worcester City with a record of D-W-W-W-D-L and Chorley at D-W-W-L-W-L. This mixed form could lead to unexpected results, making the outcome less predictable.
Worcester City vs Chorley: model vs market
| Source | Worcester City | Draw | Chorley |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Market | 37% | 26% | 37% |
| Published | 38% | 27% | 35% |
| Edge | +3% | +4% | -7% |
- The market prices Worcester City below the model: +2.9 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.65, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Worcester City vs Chorley odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Worcester City, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Worcester City | 2.45 | 2.45 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.50 | +0.00 |
| Chorley | 2.43 | 2.44 | +0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Worcester City and Chorley expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.39
- Attack rating (Worcester City / Chorley)
- 0.91 / 0.99
- Defence rating (Worcester City / Chorley)
- 0.75 / 0.78
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Worcester City vs Chorley score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Worcester City goals. Columns: Chorley goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Worcester City vs Chorley goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Worcester City vs Chorley
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Worcester City | 38% | 2.65 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.71 | |
| Chorley | 35% | 2.83 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43% | 2.34 |
| Under 2.5 | 57% | 1.74 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 2.02 |
| No | 50% | 1.98 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Worcester City or draw) | 65% | 1.55 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Chorley) | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Handicap -1 | Worcester City win by 2+ | 19% | 5.37 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Worcester City and Chorley recent form
Worcester City
3W 2D 1L
Chorley
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Worcester City at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Chorley away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Worcester City at home only, Chorley away only.
Worcester City vs Chorley head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Worcester City 0 · draws 1 · Chorley 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | Chorley | 1-1 | Worcester City | England FA Cup |
Other 4th Round Qualifying fixtures
- Yeovil Town vs Leatherhead 2026-10-20
- Forest Green v Chesham United — match page 2026-10-20
- Harrogate Town vs Bury — team news & stats 2026-10-20
- Alvechurch vs Spalding United 2026-10-20
- Cray Wanderers v Bedford Town — match page 2026-10-20
- Stafford Rangers vs Gateshead — team news & stats 2026-10-20
- United of Manchester vs Altrincham 2026-10-20
- Gloucester City v Barrow — match page 2026-10-20
Before and after this match
- Worcester City, previous: Chorley vs Worcester City prediction
- Chorley, previous: Chorley vs Worcester City prediction